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-   -   Motorcycle Industry is Doomed (http://www.advrider.com/forums/showthread.php?t=853852)

HelmetHead Cycle 01-07-2013 10:30 AM

Motorcycle Industry is Doomed
 
I honestly believe the motorcycle industry is doomed, perhaps within the next few generations. If you look at the people who ride, you will notice there are fewer and fewer young people. Especially HD. They will probably be one of the first to go. Just google HD bankruptcy and see just how many there are. Young people today are just not interested in motorcycles. They just have other interest. In fact, I just found this...

In response to the J.D. Power and Associates 2010 U.S. Motorcycle Competitive Information Study, which reveals that the average rider age has increased from 40 in 2001 to 49 in 2010, and the percentage of first-time motorcycle buyers has declined for a second consecutive year, Jim Gianatsis of FastDates.com wrote the following piece:

This is a devastating statistic for the motorcycle industry. With the median age of motorcycle buyers (and hence riders) going up by one year of age, in each of the last nine years.

That essentially means no young new riders are coming into the sport, and sales are dropping at a devastating rate of 5-10% per year, no matter what the economy does to improve.

If this trend continues, in 10-20 years when the current median rider age of 49 years old reaches 60-70 years old, and riders die off/stopping buying motorcycles, there will be effectively no new motorcycles sold in America.

We better enjoy them while we have the chance!

pcwirepro 01-07-2013 10:36 AM

I disagree. While motorcycle sales may be on the decline at the moment, with rising fuel costs and increased congestion on the roadways they're bound to make a comeback. If you look at countries with extremely dense populations, which is where we are heading, they all have high numbers of motorized two-wheeled transportation. As to the HD debate... they have always had a cyclical following with the young crowd falling in and out of love with the brand. Several years ago when credit was easy you couldn't throw a rock in a four-way intersection w/o hitting one. I think the banks may have taken a few back lately. It's the older crowd that's buying because they're the ones with CASH. Not to mention the high price tag and impracticality of the HD platform. Not that I wouldn't love to have one. That's just a lot of money to throw down on a machine that doesn't seem to do any one thing well.

HelmetHead Cycle 01-07-2013 10:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pcwirepro (Post 20419306)
I disagree. While it may be on the decline at the moment with rising fuel costs and increasing congestion in the roadways it's bound to make a rebound. If you look at countries with dense populations, which is where we are heading, they all have high numbers of motorized two-wheeled transportation.

I can only hope you're right.

fast4d 01-07-2013 10:45 AM

look at harley davidson's (HOG) latest quarter results?

larryboy 01-07-2013 10:45 AM

With plummeting fuel prices you might be right. Down to $3.35 a gallon. It really needs to be about $6.50 a gallon to get people to ride motorcycles, plus we could get a really good caste system going.

DAKEZ 01-07-2013 10:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HelmetHead Cycle (Post 20419254)
I honestly believe the motorcycle industry is doomed, perhaps within the next few generations. If you look at the people who ride, you will notice there are fewer and fewer young people. Especially HD. They will probably be one of the first to go. Just google HD bankruptcy and see just how many there are. Young people today are just not interested in motorcycles.

:topes

The HD dealerships that have failed were do to bad management and piss poor business decisions. You say: " Just google HD bankruptcy and see just how many there are."

If you want a clear picture compare that to the number of dealerships of other makes that have gone under. HD dealers that have folded are a small percentage when looked at that way... Especially when compared to the market share they hold. Yet even with that, the industry is solid.

The main reason that fewer young people are riding is the eco-fascists that work diligently to close riding areas. Kids used to grow up on bikes. Closures have made that practice more difficult to impossible.

Even with that, the industry is strong and will continue to grow. It is in no way "DOOMED"

Find a good dealer near you and support them. :deal

Quote:

Originally Posted by HelmetHead Cycle (Post 20419254)
That essentially means no young new riders are coming into the sport,

Only Poseurs and Racers look at it as a Sport. Which are you?



Quote:

Originally Posted by pcwirepro (Post 20419306)
I disagree. While it may be on the decline at the moment with rising fuel costs and increasing congestion in the roadways it's bound to make a rebound. If you look at countries with dense populations, which is where we are heading, they all have high numbers of motorized two-wheeled transportation.

^^^ This ^^^

Mr_Gone 01-07-2013 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dakez (Post 20419481)
find a good dealer near you and support them. :deal

+1

ph0rk 01-07-2013 11:09 AM

The United States is hardly the only country where motorcycles are sold.


Further, motorcycles last a lot longer than they used to, so there are many more good-quality used bikes to be had. Obviously, this will eat into new bike sales.


I'm not seeing a problem, other than the OP referring to motorcycling as a "sport".

Andrew011 01-07-2013 11:27 AM

Motorcycles are too expensive compared to cars (usability/price ratio). I guess that is why younger people prefer cars, more practical value for the money.

randyo 01-07-2013 11:40 AM

there are plenty of new young riders, right now they are just being outpaced by older middle-age crisis buyers. In the past few years, this has increased the median age of riders, now that the baby boomers are passing middle age, the number of middle age first time buyers is dropping, thngs are just getting back to normal

motorcycles will not go away any quicker than the automobile

TexaNate 01-07-2013 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ph0rk (Post 20419589)
The United States is hardly the only country where motorcycles are sold.


Further, motorcycles last a lot longer than they used to, so there are many more good-quality used bikes to be had. Obviously, this will eat into new bike sales.


I'm not seeing a problem, other than the OP referring to motorcycling as a "sport".

Quoted for truth.

There are already a number of bikes that are viable to be sold in Europe but don't make it to the American market. This reflects differing cultural tastes. These tastes could vary across time as well as they vary across geography, with the end result being the same: Everyone gets what they want.

Car sales will also decline as cars become more durable - this doesn't make the car industry "doomed". As cars last longer and are made with higher quality standards, their increase in price slightly outpaces inflation. Same thing with motorcycles. Put simply, manufacturers will get just as much money out of you, even if they sell you fewer vehicles (most of which will last longer than before).

More bright side: The ADV class of motorcycles has really blossomed over the last ten or twenty years. For as long as there is a demand for motorcycles, there will be a market. New models are introduced all the time and the only reason why a manufacturer would retire a model is if there is little demand.

LuciferMutt 01-07-2013 11:47 AM

I blame it entirely on the cost of buying a new motorcycle these days. They are getting way too expensive. Younger people don't have the income to buy these things anymore.

Grreatdog 01-07-2013 12:28 PM

There might be fewer kids on licensed motorcycles but there are about a billion of them zooming around on scooters now. How many of those young people will end up as life long motorcyclists?

Hopefully Honda and Kawasaki can put some of those scooter kids on motorcycles with the half decent price point 250's they offer now.

Ceri JC 01-07-2013 12:31 PM

I think the industry isn't doing too badly, all things considered.

With the economy as it currently standards, motorcycles, which are for the overwhelming majority of riders, in the western world at least, luxury "toys" and hence one of the first things to cut back on:
High cost,
High depreciation,
Ongoing cost (maintenance & insurance costs),
unnecessary (they're for fun)
redundant (most riders have a car/truck/van that is more practical, that they will keep instead if they can only afford one)
All adds up to something you don't buy, or at least put off buying them. Take me; two years ago I had three bikes, now I'm down to one and I'm putting off buying a second until I've moved house.

The technology continues to improve year on year, bikes get cheaper*, protective kit comes on in leaps and bounds.

It seems strange and sad to me that kids aren't interested in bikes the way they once were; kids 8<= will still wave and give the thumbs up from cars as you pass. By the time they get into their teens, however, a lot of them have forgotten bikes and have posters of cars and (in the UK at least) footballers instead. Bike racers used to (rightly) be seen as heroes by kids, now they're irrelevant to them.

We're seeing an interesting shift in the type of bikes people are buying too. Sportsbikes, once the most popular segment are seeing a sharp decline in popularity. People are going for more practical bikes as performance has reached a point where it's largely irrelevant apart from to the top couple of percent riders. Even offroad, it seems more "trail-oriented" and DS bikes are becoming popular again as people realise that, as capable as they are, full-on race dirt bikes aren't that fun/practical for bimbling along green lanes at 30mph. It's a bit like the recent shift from sportsbikes on the road catching up with the dirt world.

If the industry dies out with the ageing riding population, does it really matter? Even if they stopped making bikes tomorrow, there'd be enough bikes around that I could have one for as long as I was able to ride. As much as I'd like the next generation to take up the mantle, does it really matter (to me) if they don't? So long as existing riders are "grandfathered" and the Draconian ban on motorcycles as a means of transport on the public road doesn't come in until after I'm dead, I'm happy. Most kids these days are too soft to do motorcycling properly anyway.
:lol3

*Relative to the average annual earning, once adjusted for inflation, IE they become "more affordable".

randyo 01-07-2013 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ceri JC (Post 20420201)
If the industry dies out with the ageing riding population, does it really matter? Even if they stopped making bikes tomorrow, there'd be enough bikes around that I could have one for as long as I was able to ride. As much as I'd like the next generation to take up the mantle, does it really matter (to me) if they don't? So long as existing riders are "grandfathered" and the Draconian ban on motorcycles as a means of transport on the public road doesn't come in until after I'm dead, I'm happy. Most kids these days are too soft to do motorcycling properly anyway.
:lol3

*Relative to the average annual earning, once adjusted for inflation, IE they become "more affordable".

If they stopped making bikes tomorrow, the exisiting bikes would become more valuable, not cheaper

look at what is happening to the price of assault weapons


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