Is Mexico Safe?

[Arte]

Originally Posted by _cy_

Mexico’s changing drug war

Shifting sands

The drug war’s fifth year throws up new trends, for better and worse

Nov 26th 2011 | CIUDAD JUÁREZ | from the print edition


FIVE years ago next week, Felipe Calderón took office as Mexico’s president and launched a crackdown against organised crime. Since then there has been a horrible predictability about the country’s drug war: each year the number of deaths has risen, most of them concentrated in a handful of cities. But this year both those tendencies look as if they have started to change. The annual death toll seems to have plateaued at around 12,000. Hotspots have cooled, only for violence to invade places previously considered safe.
Ciudad Juárez, in Chihuahua state and on the border with Texas, is the most striking example of this. For several years it has been the most dangerous place in Mexico and, by most counts, the world. A city of 1.3m, it saw more than 3,000 murders last year. Yet this year the number of mafia-related killings in Chihuahua has fallen by about a third, according to a tally by Reforma, a newspaper, as have kidnappings and car thefts. (The government has not released murder statistics in almost a year.) So far this year, Chihuahua state accounts for only around 15% of such murders in Mexico, down from a peak of 32%.


The turnaround is the fruit of better co-operation between the municipal, state and federal branches of government, according to Héctor Murguía, Juárez’s mayor. Such co-operation is not easy in Mexico, where policing is still divided between more than 2,000 separate forces, despite efforts by the federal government to pass a law to consolidate them. Mr Murguía is particularly proud of his new chief of police, Julian Leyzaola, hired from Tijuana, where he presided over a dramatic dip in the murder rate. Mr Leyzaola, a retired army officer, has detractors: on November 17th Baja California’s human-rights commission accused him of torturing detainees in Tijuana, an accusation he rejects.
Others are sceptical about the relevance of the government in reducing the violence in places such as Juárez and Tijuana. In both cities the powerful Sinaloa “cartel” has been pushing to displace incumbent gangs. The dip in violence suggests that it has at last beaten or reached an accommodation with its rivals, believes David Shirk, head of the Trans-Border Institute at the University of San Diego. The Tijuana mob has been all but wiped out. The head of La Línea, a rival of Sinaloa in Juárez, was arrested in July. Some of these busts may be thanks to rival cartels’ tip-offs. “The government is an instrument that contributes—but whose hand is on the instrument?” asks Mr Shirk. Whatever the cause, both cities now appear increasingly to be the Sinaloa mob’s turf: the army said that $15.3m in cash it seized in Tijuana this week belonged to them.
Though Sinaloa’s expansion may have slowed the violence in Juárez and Tijuana, elsewhere it has stirred it up (see map). Nuevo León, Mexico’s richest state after the capital, was once one of its safest. But Sinaloa’s attempts to dislodge the Zetas, their strongest rivals, from the state capital, Monterrey, have caused almost as many murders as in Chihuahua. Similarly, Sinaloa dispatched a group of “Zeta killers” to cause havoc in previously-quiet Veracruz over the summer. The Zetas have retaliated, sending gunmen to Sinaloa’s Pacific strongholds. Acapulco has already suffered; next may be Guadalajara, Mexico’s second-largest city. It was protected by large numbers of federal police before and during the Pan American games. But the games finished on November 20th.
Predicting the traffickers’ next moves has become harder because many cartels have split into smaller groups. Based on a survey of messages left online and at the scenes of executions, Eduardo Guerrero, a Mexican academic, estimates that in 2007 there were 11 organised-crime groups active in Mexico, whereas in 2010 there were 114. Mr Murguía says that there could be ten different mobs operating in Juárez alone. Separating the big gangs from opportunistic youths is not always easy. Some teenagers are turning to amateurish extortion rackets because there are few other opportunities (see article). “The cry heard in Mexico is employment, employment, employment,” Mr Murguía says.
Juárez must now hold on to its gains with fewer police. Only 2,500 federal cops patrol, down from 5,000 in January. “We don’t know which side the municipal police will play for,” says Hugo Almada, of the University of Juárez. Some believe that the local force has links with the Juárez cartel. But the federal cops are not wholly clean either: several dozen have been arrested over the past year for crimes including kidnapping, extortion and murder. The year has shown that the world’s most dangerous city need not stay that way. Yet violence in places such as Nuevo León “suggests that what has happened in Juárez can happen anywhere in Mexico,” Mr Shirk says. Too soon to celebrate, then.

I'll be safe !! I'll be riding to Guanajuato this christmas!!!!!! yeee haaa!!!

[PirateJohn]

Originally Posted by Arte

I'll be safe !! I'll be riding to Guanajuato this christmas!!!!!! yeee haaa!!!

Note that murders in Tamaulipas are down 3% ...

[PirateJohn]

<< How 'bout riding to Mexico City and retracing Bourdain's steps from his show? >>

I will have to say that I never paid attention to Bourdain until this comment, but I have been watching him on the Travel Channel today and he's a hoot.

[SchizzMan]

Originally Posted by PirateJohn

<< How 'bout riding to Mexico City and retracing Bourdain's steps from his show? >>

I will have to say that I never paid attention to Bourdain until this comment, but I have been watching him on the Travel Channel today and he's a hoot.

Well, he's a bit of a scoundrel. Right up your alley.

He did a TexMex border episode followed by a Mexico City episode which, IMO, is the better of the two. It's always fun to see some little taqueria on TV that you recognize from your own travels.

He also covered some of the Haute Cuisine of The City. Meh.

[SchizzMan]

Gotta watch out for these down there.

[mark883]

Read today that a large number of gringos and canooks are migrating south to Michoacan, of all places.

clicky here for the reportage.


Seems that they're most afraid of Texas. Texas is even compared to hell in the article.


I can believe that....

[PirateJohn]

Originally Posted by SchizzMan

Well, he's a bit of a scoundrel. Right up your alley.

I noticed that. On his new show he casually commented that some of Singapore's best food happened to be found in one of their more notorious red light districts, so he made a number of jokes about the local working girls.

Was also hangin' with retired KGB spies on another episode.

A man to my heart.

Originally Posted by SchizzMan

He did a TexMex border episode followed by a Mexico City episode which, IMO, is the better of the two. It's always fun to see some little taqueria on TV that you recognize from your own travels.

He also covered some of the Haute Cuisine of The City. Meh.

I need to catch that border episode.

[PirateJohn]

Originally Posted by mark883

Seems that they're most afraid of Texas. Texas is even compared to hell in the article.


I can believe that....

It's No Country For Old Men ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Coun..._Old_Men_(film)

[PirateJohn]

Originally Posted by ChangoGS

.

Spent a good chunk of the morning downloading this, and I might add that it's excellent.

[mark883]

Bourdain is great and such, esp. his sense of humor, but its much more fun to go to Mexico and scout and tape your own episodes.

[ChangoGS]

Damn !!!!! That video made me hungry.

[MikeMike]

Damn, that video made my arteries hard...the Hayek/Guerrera videos and pics do kind of the same thing.

[PirateJohn]

Originally Posted by MikeMike

Damn, that video made my arteries hard...the Hayek/Guerrera videos and pics do kind of the same thing.

Way too much detail.

[tricepilot]

Originally Posted by PirateJohn

Way too much detail.

We have his video:

[larrylarry75]

Hi Guys,

This thread is nearly overwhelming to read, when I first began it had around 3500 posts and now it's nearly double that. It's been a great read so far and as much as I'd like to read it entirely I don't seem to have enough time, I'm still more than a year behind. (Page 135) Until now I've resisted the temptation to skip ahead but it seems I must if I am ever to catch up. I feel as though I know a number of you personally due to your frequent postings and for that I want to extend a special thank you, the information you've provided has been great.

My original intent was and still is to use it to develop a better sense of what to expect when I ride south next year. Most of my questions and reservations have been addressed by the various postings for which I am grateful. The best thing I've come to realize is it's not really dangerous to ride in Mexico and that was something that was weighing on my mind. There are still a lot of things I have to come to terms with; which bike to ride, where to head on this ride, will my total lack of language skills be an issue, will riding alone create any unneccesary risks, that sort of thing. Plus I'm 71 and although I'm in good health I'm not as physically strong as I used to be. I'm not truly concerned about any of these things, they're just items on my check list that I need to quantify. As has been said over and over, it's all about risk management and I'm usually pretty good at that. Usually.

I think I'll drop back a couple of months and begin reading at that point; hope I won't miss anything too critical but if anyone has any comments let me know.

Gracias!

LL75