2020 car tech may just stop most motorycle / car crashes

[fullmetalscooter]

Originally Posted by klaviator

One MAJOR problem with this system is that it only works between vehicles equipped with the proper devices. It would raise the cost of all new vehicles and not work with your older vehicle unless you spent the $$$ to retrofit it to your old vehicle.

IISS.

As with any tech price goes down with the number of units. 5 grand for a pc in 1982 with a 5 meg hardrive. Now 200 bucks. Will people get lazy shit yah if all you have to do to park is press a button. The only real reason I like this is because every time I ve been hit on a bike it's by someone turning without seeing me. Same goes for being hit will walking twice while crossing at stops signs. Most simple crashes might go bye bye because the car brake or warns you .

[gmiguy]

Originally Posted by klaviator

Trying to reduce accidents by improving people's riding/driving skills could be considered a form of discrimination against stupid people. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets classified as a hate crime

It's much easier to just invent some new technology to solve all our problems.

I don't know if it's easier, but it appears to be pretty effective. Take a look at road fatality statistics over the last 60 years or so and you'll observe that they have been steadily falling, despite more cars on the road, more miles traveled per driver, and the proliferation of in-car entertainment systems and handheld electronics.

That positive trend is due almost entirely to "the invention of new technology to solve problems".

A similar but somewhat less dramatic trend also exists for overall accident rate (not just fatalities) on a per vehicle mile traveled basis.

Do you have any references to indicate that more training or testing will result in a significant improvement in traffic safety? Not just anecdotes or comparisons to Germany, but real numbers for how much driver safety improves long-term with a given level of training?

Originally Posted by daveinva

Obviously, cars are going the wrong direction.

Historical crash and fatality statistics say that cars are very clearly going in the right direction.

The "pure" car from the odl days with only a dashboard and an AM radio to divert the operator's attention was statistically much more dangerous than a distraction-laden modern car.

Originally Posted by daveinva

But I also know I'm a safety-conscious driver, and sadly there are fewer and fewer of those out on the road. All this great tech will undoubtedly make safer drivers even safer, but through coddling it runs the risk of making lousy drivers even lousier. Which means that the tech likely ends up being a wash.

What's your source for the claim that there are fewer safety-conscious drivers "out on the road"? Again, it's not supported by the accident or fatality rates.

Historically, additional safety tech has not proven to be "a wash" - better tech makes driving significantly safe for everybody. Period.

Your "coddling" theory is likewise not supported by data - a reduction in the fatality rate does not increase the overall crash rate.

The efficacy of technology based solutions to road safety is supported by mountains of data from all over the world.

You can raise some legitimate questions about the cost, or reliability, or even the morality of these systems.

However, if you plan to claim that they don't actually work, you had better have some gold-standard data to back up your position.

[klaviator]

Originally Posted by gmiguy

I don't know if it's easier, but it appears to be pretty effective. Take a look at road fatality statistics over the last 60 years or so and you'll observe that they have been steadily falling, despite more cars on the road, more miles traveled per driver, and the proliferation of in-car entertainment systems and handheld electronics.

That positive trend is due almost entirely to "the invention of new technology to solve problems".

A similar but somewhat less dramatic trend also exists for overall accident rate (not just fatalities) on a per vehicle mile traveled basis.

Do you have any references to indicate that more training or testing will result in a significant improvement in traffic safety? Not just anecdotes or comparisons to Germany, but real numbers for how much driver safety improves long-term with a given level of training?


Historical crash and fatality statistics say that cars are very clearly going in the right direction.

The "pure" car from the odl days with only a dashboard and an AM radio to divert the operator's attention was statistically much more dangerous than a distraction-laden modern car.

I'm not against all technology. Better tires, better brakes, better suspension, seatbelts, cars that better absorb impacts. Those are all positive improvements.

ABS is probably an improvement but plenty of people are still slamming into each other. Today's cars just crash better.

As for trying to improve overall driver training, it has not really been tried in this country (except for when driver training was first implemented) and probably never will so I doubt we will ever know if it works.

As for the system this thread is about, it's completely different from all the technology used so far to reduce the fatality rate. I'm sure someday we'll see not only this system, but will eventually all of our vehicles will be driven by computers and we will only be passengers. For most of out society, they will probably be happy with this since they will be able to dedicate all their attention to texting, tweeting, playing video games, putting on makeup, etc. I just hope It doesn't happen while I'm still around.

[dwoodward]

Originally Posted by gmiguy

I don't know if it's easier, but it appears to be pretty effective. Take a look at road fatality statistics over the last 60 years or so and you'll observe that they have been steadily falling, despite more cars on the road, more miles traveled per driver, and the proliferation of in-car entertainment systems and handheld electronics.

That positive trend is due almost entirely to "the invention of new technology to solve problems".

Yes, to save lives of occupants after the crash happens. If you're paying attention, then you know damn well that, for example, ABS has effectively zero impact at preventing fatal crashes and only moderate success (single digit, IIRC) at reducing non-fatal crashes.

The Long-Term Effect of ABS in Passenger Cars and LTVs

So- Numbers and references, please?

I'm willing to credit wider, straighter roads, lower speed limits, and better handling cars more than active technology. Nothing will replace the analog meatware computer in the next eight years- nor should it, IMO.

[LuciferMutt]

I have no problem with passive technology that saves lives.

I have a problem with active technology that is stepping towards driving the car FOR you. Cars that brake if you follow too closely. Cars that brake hard if they sense an impending accident. Cars that turn things on and off for you. Cars that park themselves, etc. History* has proven that people start relying too heavily on this technology and start driving more and more like asshats just because they no longer no any better or, more likely, don't care. "Oh I don't need to set a safe following distance; the car will do it for me! -- this will shortly turn into "Safe following distance, what the F is that? My car just decides how far behind I should be." "Oh I don't need to learn proper braking distances based on speed, the car will do it for me." -- turns into "braking disWHAT? My car just stops when there is some fool in the way! GTFO OF THE WAY FOOL!"



*my own made up history

[dwoodward]

Originally Posted by klaviator

As for trying to improve overall driver training, it has not really been tried in this country (except for when driver training was first implemented) and probably never will so I doubt we will ever know if it works.

Driver- or Rider- training is never going to be effective as a one-time deal, which is why pilots (and soldiers) train continuously.

Improving driver [rider] training means extending it beyond basics and into refreshers... at the very least, people practicing the skills they have.

[klaviator]

Originally Posted by dwoodward

Driver- or Rider- training is never going to be effective as a one-time deal, which is why pilots (and soldiers) train continuously.

Improving driver [rider] training means extending it beyond basics and into refreshers... at the very least, people practicing the skills they have.

Good riders never stop training. They don't need the Government telling them to do it. Unfortunately they are in a minority.

[gmiguy]

Originally Posted by dwoodward

So- Numbers and references, please?

I'm willing to credit wider, straighter roads, lower speed limits, and better handling cars more than active technology. Nothing will replace the analog meatware computer in the next eight years- nor should it, IMO.

Here a good one for starters:
http://www.michigantrafficcrashfacts...10/years_2.pdf

I didn't calculate everything out for all years, but just dividing total crashes by miles traveled for every tenth year and converting to convenient units gives:
1960 = 6.5
1970 = 5.9
1980 = 5.1
1990 = 4.7
2000 = 4.4
2010 = 2.8

There are absolutely other factors impacting this, but the time period involved is long enough that it accounts for changes in speed limits, etc.

There are also some factors involved that would bias towards more crashes with time; for example, number of vehicles on the road. I didn't do the math on crashes per unit vehicle, but since the vehicle registrations steadily increase and more than double between 1960 and 2010 the resulting shift should be similar.

The more important point is that it supports the following contentions:
-Driving skill does not appear to be getting worse, as evidenced by drivers not crashing more often; despite the proliferation of common boogeymen such as cell phones, in car entertainment, and "coddling" systems.
-Technological solutions are an effective way to prevent (or mitigate the effects of) inadequate driving skill.

Originally Posted by klaviator

I'm sure someday we'll see not only this system, but will eventually all of our vehicles will be driven by computers and we will only be passengers. For most of out society, they will probably be happy with this since they will be able to dedicate all their attention to texting, tweeting, playing video games, putting on makeup, etc. I just hope It doesn't happen while I'm still around.

Can you elaborate on this? If your description is accurate, the end result would be that people would be safer and would have something that is currently regarded as a chore converted into free time that they could then use for things that they enjoy or value more.

Do you also regret that the "purity" of heating your home and cooking over an open fire pit in the living room has been replaced by the much safer, more effective, and less time-intensive alternative of fully automated central HVAC?

[B.Curvin]

There is only one answer. Remove seatbelts, airbags, crumple zones, traction control, etc etc.

Equip all new cars with a sharpened (then allowed to rust) rail road spike mounted in the center of the steering wheel.

Drivers will improve.

I am not being sarcastic.

[klaviator]

Originally Posted by gmiguy

Can you elaborate on this? If your description is accurate, the end result would be that people would be safer and would have something that is currently regarded as a chore converted into free time that they could then use for things that they enjoy or value more.

Do you also regret that the "purity" of heating your home and cooking over an open fire pit in the living room has been replaced by the much safer, more effective, and less time-intensive alternative of fully automated central HVAC?

Bingo!!! You have just one the grand prize. Most people do consider driving to be a chore. This is a major reason why they are not good at it. As a motorcycle rider, do you consider riding to be a chore??? Would you rather have a fully automated bike that you could just sit on while it did everything for you???

As for what I think about technology and the future. The way things are headed at this time I see a future where we will become just like the Borg; just a bunch of drones who are part of the collective. This may be very efficient and safe, but not something I wish to be part of.

[duck]

"I'm sorry but my car didn't see you."

[daveinva]

Originally Posted by gmiguy

Historical crash and fatality statistics say that cars are very clearly going in the right direction.

The "pure" car from the odl days with only a dashboard and an AM radio to divert the operator's attention was statistically much more dangerous than a distraction-laden modern car..

Excuse me, I wasn't clear in what I meant: I don't mean improved safety devices or structural enhancements-- again, I'm no romantic, pound-for-pound a car in 2012 is far, FAR safer than an equivalent car in 1972.

What I'm talking about is the growth of distracted driving, and technology that indulges distracted driving. Cel phone/texting being enemy #1, but also putting dashboard GPS/video/you-name-it in the car as well. It's like we spent decades making driving so safe that we're now committed to finding ways to make driving UNSAFE again.

[fullmetalscooter]

Originally Posted by daveinva

Excuse me, I wasn't clear in what I meant: I don't mean improved safety devices or structural enhancements-- again, I'm no romantic, pound-for-pound a car in 2012 is far, FAR safer than an equivalent car in 1972.

What I'm talking about is the growth of distracted driving, and technology that indulges distracted driving. Cel phone/texting being enemy #1, but also putting dashboard GPS/video/you-name-it in the car as well. It's like we spent decades making driving so safe that we're now committed to finding ways to make driving UNSAFE again.

W5 a long time program in Canada did some a spot on gps. It shows that programing them etc while driving etc is far worse then a cell phone. Safe if only programed before you take off and not on the run.

[Tosh Togo]

Originally Posted by B.Curvin

There is only one answer. Remove seatbelts, airbags, crumple zones, traction control, etc etc.

Equip all new cars with a sharpened (then allowed to rust) rail road spike mounted in the center of the steering wheel.

Drivers will improve.

I am not being sarcastic.

Annnnddd... number FOUR

Expecting technology to make up for stupid/self-distracted/inept driving makes as much sense as trying to spend your way out of debt.

[thumpty dumpty]

Originally Posted by klaviator

I'm sure someday we'll see not only this system, but will eventually all of our vehicles will be driven by computers and we will only be passengers. For most of out society, they will probably be happy with this since they will be able to dedicate all their attention to texting, tweeting, playing video games, putting on makeup, etc. I just hope It doesn't happen while I'm still around.

Originally Posted by gmiguy

Can you elaborate on this? If your description is accurate, the end result would be that people would be safer and would have something that is currently regarded as a chore converted into free time that they could then use for things that they enjoy or value more.

Odd that nobody seems to love it...you just decribed riding a bus.