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Old 08-02-2012, 01:21 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by troy safari carpente View Post
^^^


These two are still very much the "fastest guys with a roadbook in front of them" out there... Both have over a decade of experience/maturity, are in peak physical riding form. PLUS, they have the most professional team/organisation behind them. Frankly I don't see anyone that comes to the table with guns as big as those. Too old? Hmmmm.... Peterhansel won right up until the day he retired from the moto's... And he comes back (occassionally) after 10 YEAR ABSCENCE and is still competitive! Both the "aliens" possess the same genetic code... don't expect them to be anything less than the yardstick by which others are measured come January.

Excelent Troy - didn't have the time for that, but I would say it's about on the nail.

I have had it from one of horses mouth's that contrary to popular belief the "Aliens" ride flat out most of the time/when they can, regardless of the fact it's a marathon and with an engine that probably has 10km/hr more than most - so one target for the new boys.

"Special/private" fuel may not be available this year, so 1 point to the rest, but if you you were a bookie it really would only be down to one of two options - evens on them both, 1/5 the next.

But we can live in hope, one slip and Captain Kirk and the crew of the Enterprise (whoever he may be) will have one of them - but both, highly unlikely, but the guns are out.

too old screwed with this post 08-02-2012 at 01:23 AM Reason: fat fingered typing
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Old 08-02-2012, 01:31 AM   #77
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Troy,

Let's say that hypothetically the lead men of the HRC and BF teams are able to minimize the big time gaps that we've seen in the past. Do you think that this might bring enough pressure on Coma/Despres to force mistakes? I realize that they have both felt the pressure before, but it seems that it was only from each other. I wonder if having a few more players breathing down their backs might contribute to some additional excitement at the front? Would KTM still make the engine changes if the competition were a lot closer in time than last year? I just imagine if Helder were 20-25 minutes back when it came time to change engines, would the KTM tactical decision change?

At the very least this coming edition will be a lot more interesting.

- Ken
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Old 08-02-2012, 01:35 AM   #78
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As opposed to Mr. Troy, I actually have to work, so my prediction will be a bit more...concise.

1. KTM factory
2. HRC
3. KTM factory

HRC will provide an excellent team and lots of support and will be able to mount enough pressure on Mustaccio and Pretty Boy to at least split their dominance.

All Bordone bikes will DNF due to mechanicals.
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Old 08-02-2012, 02:47 AM   #79
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Add in SpeedBrain (Barreda is maturing nicely), and '13 could get very interesting indeed.

Great insights from everyone, affirms how cool this place is...
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Old 08-02-2012, 02:58 AM   #80
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Add in SpeedBrain (Barreda is maturing nicely), and '13 could get very interesting indeed.

Great insights from everyone, affirms how cool this place is...

There is a wild rumour out there that he may have a secret team mate come Jan
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Old 08-02-2012, 03:08 AM   #81
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Just heard some great news.. +2 more Brits are in!! This race is hotting up now, gonna be a heart stopping F5 season! Reckon that has the tally up to 9 or 10 entries now... our biggest year ever?
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Old 08-02-2012, 03:13 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by Flood View Post
As opposed to Mr. Troy, I actually have to work, so my prediction will be a bit more...concise.

1. KTM factory
2. HRC
3. KTM factory

HRC will provide an excellent team and lots of support and will be able to mount enough pressure on Mustaccio and Pretty Boy to at least split their dominance.

All Bordone bikes will DNF due to mechanicals.
Way to put your self "out there" and make such a bold prediction five months out from the start gun FLOOD... I like it!

Your concise 1. 2. 3. appraisal graphically illustrates what I think wilkinsonk and too old are getting at... and that is that the HRC boy's will be setting their sights on the targets pinned on Eet's okay Coma, and Cyril Esprit's backs, in the hopes of an upset.

But... way to put the kybosh on the B-F outfits new birthday present... Unfortunately, my gut feeling is... that you are right (it is a big possibility) and I agree with you. Hard to motivate perhaps; given that we haven't even seen/heard of a working race prototype in testing or participated in any other rally events thus far... but that in itself points towards the likelihood that they could experience some "teething problems" come DAKAR time.


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Originally Posted by wilkinsonk View Post
Troy,

Let's say that hypothetically the lead men of the HRC and BF teams are able to minimize the big time gaps that we've seen in the past. Do you think that this might bring enough pressure on Coma/Despres to force mistakes? I realize that they have both felt the pressure before, but it seems that it was only from each other. I wonder if having a few more players breathing down their backs might contribute to some additional excitement at the front? Would KTM still make the engine changes if the competition were a lot closer in time than last year? I just imagine if Helder were 20-25 minutes back when it came time to change engines, would the KTM tactical decision change?

At the very least this coming edition will be a lot more interesting.

- Ken
Hypothetically speaking Ken... here is what I reckon the KTM management and aliens support council will be doing (as soon as the details of the course/shedule are made known from ASO).

They will carefully go through each stage, using the overall distances given (for liason and specials) as well as the overnight bivouac locations, and using resources such as google earth, mapsource etc. try to establish a "feel" for the terrain and nature of each days competition.

Already we know - from the fact that the rally is starting in Lima, and that from last years event; the close proximity and abundance of tough desert dunes/terrain in Peru - that the beginning of the rally this year will probably (likely) be "tougher" than the last four editions that have started in Argentiana. The inhabited rural and agricultural area (approx 500 km radius) around Buenos Aires creates somewhat of a "buffer zone" as far as hard core off road terrain is concerned. Typically since 2009 we have seen the first couple of days consist of not much more than gravel roads and farm tracks. Nothing in the way of "off piste navigation" and possibly easier for a non-alien rider to wick it up and stay in touch with the pack. Realistically, in the last four editions of Dakar, the "tough stuff" has not started untill day three or even four/five.

What Lima/Chilé present as far as a start location for DAKAR, is that the ASO can set (almost from the outskirts of Lima) some very demanding (both technical and navigation wise) off piste, desert terrain stages, right from day one... no "soft start", provided that is what they want to achieve.

If KTM do their homework thoroughly (and you KNOW they will) the alien camp will be looking to find a stage early in the rally (off piste/difficult navigation), where they can put a big hole into their pursuers timewise, stamp their control on things early.. Both Marc and Cyril are very competent on GPS nav (possibly Coma slightly moreso that Despres I get the impression) and with the exception of Helder and Chaleco (possibly Ullevalsäter also), I cannot think of many others riders who can navigate quickly, decisively from up front, out in an "off piste" situation.

So in the opening two or three days, if the KTM squad see an opportunity where they can push hard in a longer/arduos "off piste" navigation stage; while their machines and themselves still fresh and possibly "surprise" their HRC/B-F pursuers while they are still finding their "sea legs"... there is the chance for them to open that 20 perhaps 25 minute time gap (that wilkinsonk mentioned earlier) back to the "others" early on... Peterhansel was once the master of this tactic.

Remembering of course, that in rallies; each days start order is determined by the previous days stage result (not overall)... That is to say the fastest on previous leg starts first the following day. If by day four/five the aliens have been able to successfully "run away and hide" and create a sufficient buffer in the Peruvian Chiléan hard stuff... from day five/six onwards, they can fall in behind and keep an eye on their main protagonists; as long as they keep them in sight... they are in the lead. It forces the (perhaps not so used to leading) opposition from HRC etc. to try and catch up from in front (not attack from behind). Psychologically a very different kettle of fish.

So in fact, it could turn out be the exact opposite of the "minimize the time gaps to up front" that wilkinsonk suggest in the previous post... Maybe the "others" will have to lead from the front...instead of chase from behind. That is what is required to win a DAKAR these days (true in both the auto and moto categories) and that's something that only the aliens have shown they have the ability to do regularly in the past.


Engine changes/tactics/reliability?:

I am pretty certain that almost all teams have a pre-determined service/engine change plan (based on their own testing and service intervall protocols) that they go to DAKAR with. But all of these get altered along the way, due to unplanned mechanicals, tactical decisions depending on where/what the competition have done etc. So what KTM will do regards engine transplants etc. at this point in time...? Impossible to say, other than; it most likely WILL play a factor - no doubt.
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Old 08-02-2012, 03:25 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by troy safari carpente View Post
B-F's team structure and logistics for 2012 were (by all accounts) pretty spartan in comparison to what the dominating team brings to the fight, and although reports/indications for 2013 point towards an escalation in the arms race; it also raises the interesting final point - who is fronting the dollars?

Aside from Chaleco (who has his own portfolio of long term sponsors with him) the other BF bikes/team riders in the past have shown little in the way of corporate support (other than the usual contributing suppliers etc.). The team B-F logo has been prominent, but it seems that to date that the obligatory "corporate cash cow" big naming rights sponsor logo is what has been absent... Do they have a new "partner" for 2013... or is it all self (B-F) funded?

For sure the PR and media release hype around the new B-F bike has been world class... That's the kind of marketing and media presence that is required to attract a naming rights sponsor for sure, but to keep one requires wins on the result sheets and media coverage.
I'll try and stick up some of the key points from the TBM article I mentioned if I get time later, as it covers a few of these points.

As I said in (IIRC) the HRC thread, I don't find it impossible to believe that either manufacturer will turn up to the Dakar with a bike that is more or less as good as a 450RR, but the fact they don't have either Despres or Coma will still prevent them taking the win. And yeah, there is a reasonable likelyhood of a '50p part failure' DNF for some of the BF bikes.
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Old 08-02-2012, 03:36 AM   #84
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Regarding the BF bike, I'm gonna wait for the Pharaons before passing judgement...
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Old 08-02-2012, 04:22 AM   #85
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Regarding the BF bike, I'm gonna wait for the Pharaons before passing judgement...
Ah yes Brodo... but by then the odds could fall* It takes a truly courageous type like FLOOD to put their money up five months out from the first round bell.

*Mind you... the B-F odds could go way up if the things fall into bits at Egypt...? or if HRC share skyrocket if they turn up in Lima with four MotoGP semis and a cast of hundreds.

The topic at hand at the momemnt is who is prepared to put money where the mouth is here and now... based on the limited info. we have at hand.

Frankly Brodo, your "sit on the fence/wait and see" attitude is pretty (jokingly) dissappointing... It inspires about as much confidence as the Greek economy*...





*(sorry I couldn't help myself...)
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Old 08-02-2012, 04:40 AM   #86
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Oh let's not go there...

No, I am (naively maybe?) optimistic regarding the Mi1... as for the 50p piece failing, well that would have to be the mechanic's fault, no? I am pretty sure all the teams (except HRC - their attention to detail is second to none) use the same -proven- off-the-shelf bits... I am talking fuel pumps, brakes, clutches, electrical components etc...

In my opinion it's up to how much attention the bikes get at the end of each day by the mechanics, and how much effort & time they are prepared to spend on the bikes... remember the Verhoeven / Sherco debacle, or rider's gripes with Geofil, failures were mainly down to lazy/inept mechanics IIRC

I am pretty sure big orange replace about 50% (if not all) of the bits prone (or even suspect) to failure on their fleet at the end of each stage... (I have faith that BF spent a lot of hours dissecting and analyzing the 450RRs that they were racing with last year, and have probably fitted the exact same components on their new beauties)

So, to go out on a limb, I think BF's success lies more in the level & quality of support they are willing to invest in the team, than the actual power plant or accessories on the bike... That will be the deciding factor, and not the powerplant (TM are not Sherco witness their results in SuperMoto)

We'll get a better picture come October
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Old 08-02-2012, 05:34 AM   #87
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Hmmmm....... I just kinda started this thread to talk about who on ADVRider might be racing the 2013 Dakar Rally. People that we might know and be able to follow. Privateers and such....
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Old 08-02-2012, 05:38 AM   #88
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So, to go out on a limb, I think BF's success lies more in the level & quality of support they are willing to invest in the team, than the actual power plant or accessories on the bike... That will be the deciding factor, and not the powerplant (TM are not Sherco witness their results in SuperMoto)
Huh... that strange I've never reviewed the results sheets from any of those 6000 km plus multi-day Supermoto events ... they do pretty well heh?
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Old 08-02-2012, 05:43 AM   #89
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Hmmmm....... I just kinda started this thread to talk about who on ADVRider might be racing the 2013 Dakar Rally. People that we might know and be able to follow. Privateers and such....
And then the internet took over


Alrighty Troy, expect a pm soon as I got a gut feeling (hopefully better than last years gut feeling) and will be sending a wager your way. Once again not a $ bet...I'll come up with something more interesting than cash
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Old 08-02-2012, 05:52 AM   #90
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And then the internet took over


Alrighty Troy, expect a pm soon as I got a gut feeling (hopefully better than last years gut feeling) and will be sending a wager your way. Once again not a $ bet...I'll come up with something more interesting than cash
I never bet cash... a sporting mans wager and items of sentimental value are always far more satisfying.

And yes folks, we even take wagers on the Auto (as well as) moto divisions... But them Quads and SxS's... nope. There is no science to it... They are more like playing bingo than a wager... just a heap of balls randomly bouncing around, wating for something (a winner) to fall out...
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