Today Was a Sad Day

Discussion in 'The Perfect Line and Other Riding Myths' started by cabanza, Feb 11, 2018.

  1. JB2

    JB2 Dirt Of The Earth

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    My wife has a new Encore. Loves it. Locked her keys inside the other day but was able to unlock it with an "AP" on her i-phone. Okay that's kind of cool but motorcycling is an escape. I don't want to be tracked or saved from anything. I just want a bike that isn't in competition with the latest smart phone. The last few times I have traveled long distance I started imprinting the routes in my head and left the maps and GPS at home. Isn't getting lost part of the thrill of living life on two wheels? If there's anything manufacturers are missing this has to be it.
    #81
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  2. Paebr332

    Paebr332 Good news everyone!

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    If the two people in your example were the only two people who saw an income change the median figure would not change by one penny. If one guy in America got a trillion dollar raise, and everyone else in the country saw no change in their income, the median income would not change by one penny. The median looks at what the exact mid-point of ALL income earners make. 50% will always be above the median, and 50% will be below it.

    The only way the median can go up is if MORE people make more money, not if a few make a lot more money. The latter would raise the mean (arithmetic average) income. It's just math.
    #82
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  3. BetterLateThanNever

    BetterLateThanNever Long timer

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    Right. Which is why it's a better rough indicator of where incomes are going than an average number would be.
    #83
  4. 2tallnwide

    2tallnwide Long timer

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    Kinda hard to ride a motorcycle with a twat hat on, esp hung over from a Tide Pod binge. :augie
    #84
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  5. dustin2

    dustin2 VFR800

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    What's a twat hat? Is it like a cowboy hat?
    #85
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  6. markk53

    markk53 jack of all trades...

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    I see my error. Let's make it more.

    Wouldn't the median income increase if all those in the upper 60% of the population gained a higher percentage than the lower 40%? And wouldn't it be greater even if the lower 40% gained nothing?

    In listening to people who are likely in that lower 40% stagnant wages seem somewhat common. Then there is the shift caused by employers having to pay a few bucks more than minimum wage to get workers, a rise in median, but not much change in life for those who are still at the lower levels. Neither group are in good shape. They still can't afford to get sick or injured. And we still keep hearing about how high level white collar workers (can't hardly call them labor) are paid more and more - oddly enough even when they are fired!
    #86
  7. Snowbird

    Snowbird Cereal Killer

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    Okay. I was going from the mfgr weight of just about 450, even then working from memory. I happy enough to cross it off my list... besides, it's been pointed out by another poster the bike is more street than trail. I say that, even though street worthiness is crucial to my KLR's mission; else wise I'd have chosen a different bike perhaps. Then again, having better passenger seating moves the KLR back to the front. I really wish a manufacturer would come out with a better KLR. Is that even possible?
    #87
  8. bomose

    bomose Long timer

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    Last time I locked my keys in my van, I reached for the hide a key and opened it. And I can replace it for $5 at the hardware store. It is a 2002. My 2011 KTM 990 requires a computer to adjust the throttle. A new key cost over $100 and takes a couple of weeks to get, from what I hear.
    #88
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  9. BetterLateThanNever

    BetterLateThanNever Long timer

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    It’s true that a median won’t show you the shape of the curve. It’s just a better indicator of the overall trend than an average is.

    But I’d urge you to rely on real data rather than anecdote. Things are not as bad as the click-baity media world wants to make them seem, and far too much attention is paid to statistical outliers when people talk about wealth and income.
    #89
  10. chasejj

    chasejj Been here awhile

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    FWIW- The Mountain Bike market is tanking as well. Millennials know how to work the online sales for what they need leaving the brick and mortar shops performing flat repairs and free tune ups on family bikes. Not exactly a profit generator. Toss that trend in with the fear the millennials parents have instilled in their kids over any activity or sport that is considered risky and you have a problem.
    The only category of MTB sales doing well in Europe right now as I hear it is Electric assisted bikes which in some markets accounts for 75% of all new sales. The category did not exist 3 years ago.
    added: There is tremendous resistance to E-bikes by MTB users (US only) due to fear of being lumped in with Moto bikes in the trail access fights. This is also mixed with a decidedly elitist attitude by the fit vs. those not so fit. Typical. So Ebike sales are very city focused right now due to the politics.
    #90
  11. markk53

    markk53 jack of all trades...

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    Depends on where you live. There are a heck of a lot of underemployed and unemployed people in the mid west US, especially the rust belt. For instance, unless one is in Cleveland, Columbus or Cincinnati, one may not have had a raise in a number of years or have lost their jobs... I moved to the Columbus area for that specific reason - no jobs where I lived.
    #91
  12. Paebr332

    Paebr332 Good news everyone!

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    If income shifted from the lower 50% to the upper 50% the median income actually would fall.

    If we had 101 people who collected baseball cards, and 100 of them each have 1 card, and one has 102 cards the average (mean) would be 202 cards/101 collectors = 2 cards per collector. But the median would be the number of cards held by the person in the exact middle of the distribution from least to most. In this case, the median would be 1 since no matter how you order the 100 people with one card the person in the middle has 1 card. If the big collector managed to finagle his way to getting 51 people to give him their cards, we would now have 51 with no cards, 49 with one card each, and the top collector with 153 cards. The median would now be 0 as the person in the middle of the distribution (our 51st collector in order) now had 0 cards. The mean would still be 2.

    If instead of getting the cards from the others, our top collector found somewhere to obtain another 101 cards, the median would still be 1 as the midpoint of the low to high distribution would still be someone with 1 card. The average (mean) would now be 303 cards/101 collectors = 3 cards per collector. The top collector skewed the average (mean) but has no effect on the median.

    To shift the median higher at least 50 collectors OTHER THAN the top collector would need to obtain an additional card. So if we have 50 with 1 card each, 50 with 2 OR MORE cards each, and the top guy with his original 102 cards (or 1 billion for that matter), the midpoint of the distribution (the median) is our 51st collector in order from low to high. This collector has 2 cards, so the median rises from 1 to 2. If only 49 collectors obtained an additional card or cards, the median would stay at 1 because more than 50% of collectors (51 in this case) would still only have 1 card.

    In summary, the only way for the median of a distribution to increase is if at least 50% of the population being measured has more of the item being measured. An increase in median income means that at least 50% of all income earners earned more.
    #92
  13. William Wolfen

    William Wolfen Dirt Seeker

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    While your grasp of the math is fine, you're missing the issue. It's not about dollars, is about buying power. There's also the issue of you only looking at the last couple years, side were slowly recovering from a major recession. How about comparing 2015 to 2005 to get a pre recession to post recession baseline?
    #93
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  14. markk53

    markk53 jack of all trades...

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    Yeah and not much, other than gas every few weeks fluctuating down, has dropped in price. Most has gone up or stayed the same. So those with stagnant income levels or at lower paying jobs than before (layoffs) are losing ground. Plus if the ones getting back to work are white collar (aka higher income) getting similar work to before then the median will move up.

    It is definitely games with numbers. I can't wait to see how the U.S. govt is going to do all the infrastructure work and added military spending while cutting taxes mostly for those most wealthy. We already learned that trickle down doesn't work. No manufacturer will build more product unless they can sell it, they will pocket the additional income.
    #94
  15. 2tallnwide

    2tallnwide Long timer

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    twat hats vary....these seem to be the most used ones.

    [​IMG]
    #95
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  16. Paebr332

    Paebr332 Good news everyone!

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    INFLATION ADJUSTED (that is a measure of buying power) median household income hit an ALL TIME HIGH in 2016, and 2017 is expected to pass it once the figures are released for last year. Median household income is up $2,000 since 2005, adjusting for inflation. It is up even higher in nominal (non-inflation adjusted) terms.

    This is going to end up punted to CSM, since it's becoming an argument about how much money people have.
    #96
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  17. BetterLateThanNever

    BetterLateThanNever Long timer

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    Right. And that matters to this thread because blaming the wrong thing means the problem won’t get solved.
    #97
  18. Robert OK

    Robert OK Been here awhile

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    I didn't know that, but am not surprised. Most of the people I know who ride keep their bikes for years. Unless you're competing, seems pointless to spend upwards of 3K or more for a new bike even every five years. After a while the technological improvements seem miniscule. My wife has a Trek that's probably 20 years old and she still loves it for non-technical stuff.

    Last year we bought 27.5 plus bikes, they will probably last till we kick the bucket.
    #98
  19. shredzorz

    shredzorz Adventurer

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    I imagine it's similar to a merkin.
    #99
  20. Patek

    Patek Been here awhile

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    I’m not too sure of your theory. I started riding when I was 33 as a present to myself for getting my second master’s degree. I had never been around bikes before then and no one in my family rides.