The Future ... ?

Well other people have different ideas, and rely on different data.



Large-scale solar photovoltaics – competitive round

6kW solar systems: Pricing, output, and returns

After an intial roof-top solar array of only 1.5kW (six panels), I made the change up to a 6kW system (twenty-four panels). Mains Power costs in Australia are quite pricey, and my present power bills are only 30-36% of what they used to be. In Summer on a good sunny day I can generate up to 37 kWHs, but its presently Winter in the Southern Hemisphere and today was somewhat cloudy - so just almost 7 kWHs was reading on the meter by sundown. (Note: referring to the photo heading this 6kW story, three homes with rounded pools, roofs cream, grey, and grey again towards the lower-right - all have 24 panel systems.)

I own two cordless motor mowers- one 18" cut, and the other one 21" cut. Three 56V batteries 2A/H, 4A/H, and 6A/H will fit in the larger and also in a Brushcutter.

Is home solar power still worth it in Australia in 2018?

"Conclusion: Is solar PV still worth it in 2018? Absolutely

In 2018, solar power systems remain affordable and attractive, especially in light of the plague of high electricity prices. Solar feed-in rates may be not be spectacular, but with system prices as low as they are it’s not difficult to see favourable returns from putting solar on your roof, particularly if you shop around and manage to find a good deal. Furthermore, making efforts to increase your rate of direct solar energy consumption (e.g. with a home management system) will also help to maximise returns."

Maybe photovoltaics will work out but there have been issues with large solar arrays in California, particularly with large birds. South Australia is a test case but still requires generated backup and peak supplementation. Besides not everywhere has that much open space without the white stuff called snow coving it much of the year. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michae...-why-do-they-keep-destroying-it/#12f78f553a1c

The same “worthless” solar panel has powered my electric gate for 24 years and outlasted five deep cycle batteries. Your mileage may differ.

GM bought out a company called Cruise that was developing driver-less cars a couple of years ago and has been busy creating an app based car service. In recent months they have been working with the City of San Francisco to get the planning together so they can become licensed to run the service on the downtown streets. https://jalopnik.com/gm-cruise-prepping-launch-of-driverless-car-pilot-in-sa-1826571157

In today's newspaper there's an article and photo of GM's completed charging station, 18 connectors to recharge the highly modified Chevy Bolt fleet. It's up and ready to go, apparently. Not yet ready and licensed to start taking paying passengers, but that's on the way. They seem to be planning to compete with Uber and Lyft rather than allying with either one.

My point is that the future is coming at us much faster than many of us would like to admit. Calling up a self driving electric vehicle to take you from point A to point B in a city is just about here. We already have "rent by the minute" electric stand up and sit down scooters running all over the place here.

Plenty of us "get it," Jerry. I've owned a couple Sportsters - they are fun bikes. What you describe in that post is people who can't understand why everyone doesn't think the same as they do. People on a Sportster forum angry because HD is developing an electric bike? Well, that is the definition of egocentric (If I don't want it, they shouldn't make it.). You have your Sportster - you aren't going to buy another Sportster - why would you care what HD makes in the future?

Those with a more open mind understand the options. Electric bikes don't work for you? Don't buy one. As long as there is a market, manufacturers will make the things that people want to BUY. You keep saying "If e-bicycles were half the price," you'd buy one. I paid less than half that $3k price you've tossed around, and have been riding it for the past several years. They exist. They work.

Solar power doesn't work? A previous sailboat we owned had a solar panel that took care of all our electrical needs onboard. It worked then, works now. Every time we come to AZ, I see more solar panels on roofs... must be a reason why. Is it perfect? No. But, it works and the technology continues to improve.

What I am trying to say: you ARE getting people to understand YOUR attraction to old technology. We have all gotten that years ago. What you aren't accomplishing: changing anyone's mind to your way of thinking. Yes, there are folks here who agree with you; plenty who prefer things more modern... you won't change their minds, they won't change yours. As near as I can tell, no one here has ever said they don't understand why you prefer old technology. Seriously, we get it. But, like the crazy guy standing on a corner hollering "Repent!", no minds are being changed. Some of us actually like that you like old technology; we are happy that you get to have what you want. One last time: we understand your attraction to the old crap - we just don't all want to live that way. Because: options.

Technology continues to march on. It is your choice whether or not to embrace any new technology. Just like everyone else gets to make that choice, too.

One more thing, then I'm done: you mentioned your GT200 as being too quiet, or not able to hear it while you're riding. My GTS 250ie has a pleasant scooter exhaust note. Before I put the Laminar Lip (modern technology) on the windshield, I couldn't hear the engine at speed due to the wind noise. Now, my riding is more pleasant, and I can hear that engine running. Options. I like my Vespa. I like my PCX, too. One isn't better than the other, but the PCX is just as much fun. Will I ever have another scooter besides these two? Probably. Heck, it might even be electric.

Options.

There are several of these e-bikes here in the airpark: https://sondors.com/products/sondors-original-us-canada-only?variant=6559062523943 Less than $1000.

Solar is very good for some things. I like it for outdoor lighting but the solar panel run pool aerator sucks. Large solar farms at least as implemented in the US have created environmental issues that were not envisioned when they were set up. Sort of thing you have to learn from experience. I rode past one of the big arrays in California and you could see the waves of heat radiating from them miles away.

And fracking has made Oklahoma earthquake central but you have to try to learn the downside of anything. Learning from failure breeds success.

Fracking shouldn't be causing earthquakes if they do it properly. How to do it right was learned in Colorado back in the 60s out at the Rocky Mountain National Arsenal. All has to do with proper fluid balance.

Nothing is problem free and that's what some of the "renewable" people need to realize. There are costs both in cash and environmental to every form of power generation.

Dude, there no such thing as the “renewable” people. Dividing us into renewable people or fish people underplays the enormity of the situation. I lived through the 60s when people where dying from smog in LA and London. Soon enough fresh water is going to be a big deal. I don’t know how anyone thinks they can eat or breathe money but that’s a dead end argument.

In 1935 Boeing demoed the type 299 bomber for the Joint Chiefs at Wright-Pat. It crashed upon take off, because even with 200 hours in the airframe the crew neglected to unlock the flaps and ailerons. It killed the pilot and one of the designers but Boeing still turned that into the B-17. That birthed the pre flight check list. We learned from that. The current overturn every regulation climate is diametrically opposed to that kind of learning and I expect failure. Again. What a waste.

It’s a shame but thankfully I’ll be dead before that harvest is realized.

I was just reading about solar for the first time solar plants combine with batteries in now cheaper then to install and run on the same scale as coal and natural gas plants. . With china pushing to go solar big time you ll see the price go way down . Right now it's cheaper per watt then ever before .

We're in a major transition period right now, from carbon based mineral fuels to other sources (wind, water, sun, maybe tides) and there are going to be mistakes and foul ups and tragedies and successes. That's how things seem to work with technology change. Some people screamed like hell when internal combustion engines pushed horses off city streets, and other people celebrated because it meant the end of endless piles of manure and urine puddles in muddy streets. Lots of jobs disappeared (New York City had thousands of people who cleaned up horse manure every day in Manhattan, piled it on barges and dumped it in the ocean). We survived and thrived. Chances are the same sort of dramatic changes will take place again, and we will survive that, too.

I agree with @CaptnJim completely. I also enjoy fussing around with my old scooters, and carburetors are still interesting to me. But it's a good thing there aren't lots of people like me, because those old scooters belch out a hell of a lot of pollutants. Small ICE machinery creates a big amount of air pollution now that cars and light trucks are so well filtered the air they put out is cleaner (less particles of stuff) than the air they take in.

This is the salient point, we are in the midst of the transition. There are going to be missteps but the transition is going to occur.

Getting angry about change says a lot more about the person than the change.

It is nice to hear that at least some others understand my feelings. However, unlike many of those, my feelings will not change. I will be an ICE guy till I die. I still love 2 strokes, and 4 strokes that shake and make noise. I absolutely love carburetors. I have no interest in any alternatives.

Yes, there are cheaper electric bicycles out there. But check their range. I wanted the electric bicycle for only one reason, and it was not short trips. I wanted it to take nice, slow, leisurely rides on a local bike path that runs along a canal bank in the evenings. I used to ride it on a pedal bike, but can no longer do so. Gas powered bikes are not allowed, and I don't have a problem. Skateboards are not allowed either. It is not a street. There are other bicycle riders, joggers, people walking dogs, and people just out walking. Nobody is in a hurry. But to get in a decent ride, I need close to a 30 mile range. No $1000 bike In have ever seen has that. Not even close. 30 miles is pushing the absolute limits of what is possible with a no pedal electric bicycle, and it is not cheap.

What other people want is totally their business. BUT. I have been told how wrong I am because I like what I like over and over again. I have no problem with others using electric vehicles. But I see a time when ICE vehicles may no longer be available, and I do have a problem with that. No alternatives, no choices. Electric or nothing. I will not be here to see that happen.


But, from the day I got my drivers license in 1975, almost to the day, the government started taking over the car business. New cars suddenly had emissions crap and safety bumpers on them. Remember the 1973 seatbelt interlocks? This stuff didn't affect me for a while, because I drove old cars. But I finally wound up in the middle of it. So I bought several older cars that were made before this stuff started to happen, fixed them up, and drove them. I still drive a 54 year old car on a daily basis. I had to sell my favorite VW bug because it was almost impossible to get through emissions tests. I may now buy another, as they can be insured as collector cars which exempts them from emissions tests. But you can see what I mean. My lifelong love affair wit cars and bikes has been ruined by all this crap. I just want simple cars and bikes without all the modern technology (electronic technology) that I understand, can work on, can modify, without running into government problems. I want my life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness.

Oh, and on the subject of environmental damage, those huge solar arrays and wind turbines (like the ones near Palm Springs) are doing serious environmental damage. They took pristine land and destroyed it. It looks worse than an oil field

I would like to have a 150cc scoot that will do 85mph and get 150 miles per gallon. Ain't gonna happen. So, I just go have a blast with what we have. Knock something off that 30 mile range and you could be out enjoying some of that bike path you'd like to do. Just saying that sometimes we have to compromise on what we want and what we can have... but, still enjoy it. Some days I do a 5 or 6 mile ride with the e-bike and just enjoy the living shit out of it! Every ride doesn't have to be at the maximum range. As I recall, you don't take your Stella more than 100 miles from home, since that is the range of your towing service... do you ride it exactly 100 miles every ride, then turn around? Of course not - you take each day and each ride as it comes.

You are selling yourself short, Jerry. There isn't a regular reader here who doesn't know what you like in a vehicle (2 or 4 wheels). I don't think they tell you that you are wrong... but they will argue with you when you push your agenda. What may be wrong for me could be just perfect for you and vice versa. You aren't wrong because you love carburetors... just like I'm not wrong because I like fuel injection. Pick what's best for you and don't tell others how they should live. Fuel injection and electronics aren't crap just because you think they might be tough for you to repair... but that is how you come across. No one begrudges your opinions (in fact, some here have openly agreed with you), but you make no friends when you put down what others feel is a vast improvement over the technology of the past. Live and let live. Enjoy, and lay off the "Woe is me," regarding modern things.

I had a couple VW Bugs in the 60s and 70s; 3 different VW buses, including a camper. I was a poor kid - couldn't afford what I wanted, so I got what I could afford and made it work. Sure beat not having anything. As my financial situation improved, I was able to buy newer and better. But, before that, I had a few $100 cars. My first motorcycle was $100... that must have been the magic number back then.

You like working on old stuff, I don't. Doesn't make either of us wrong. And most folks here are likely somewhere in between. And they aren't wrong, either. So, enjoy what you have. Don't put down "maxi-scooters" (real or imagined) because they aren't for you - that pisses off owners of those and makes them want to tell you that you are wrong. Just don't bring it on yourself. Life is too short to go through it making things tough on yourself or others. Be happy for yourself AND those who are enjoying what they have.

This thread is about "the future"... look ahead and do what makes you happy... well, as long as that doesn't piss off other people. None of us know if we'll get to see tomorrow; best to just enjoy each day the best we can.

Best wishes.

I wonder if it might not be easier to club together and get him a subscription to Real Classics. https://www.classicmagazines.co.uk/subscription/RC
Unfortunately the self deprecating English sense of humour would probably not work for him. Which is why I read it, the light hearted tone. That and being reminded why old bikes were such a pain in the arse. I love six thousand mile oil change intervals and final drive chains that require no tightening and valves that rarely budge.

I’d rather ride than wrench even though I’ve been totally enamored with my project bikes. With over 500K miles in or on fuel injected vehicles with zero failures the carb only crew comes across as wingeing luddites. I have the same experience with electronic ignition, it works just as reliably...my only failure was a known factory defect. I got my first bike in 1971, kidney cancer has me sidelined now but I might come out okay and there will be a new ride in my future, a fuel injected electronic ignition modern bike. I only have to please myself, not anyone else. That’s truly the key to enjoying riding.

Sometimes I read the ranting an just wonder how anyone in California gets a bike to run and then I realize they do everyday and there aren’t thousands of broken machines littering the shoulders of I-5. Perception loses when confronted with reality.

Roberto Patrignani 1964 Afghanistan. Heroic not necessarily better.

Jerry - I can't provide an answer to all your woes, but I do have a Bafang BBSHD kit (+_$1k) on a bike I already owned ($800 craigslist). I go over 30 miles on every charge - 30 is my threshold for recharging. My battery is a standard 48v dolphin/shark type - there are bigger/higher capacity ones available. However, there is no such thing as a "no pedal" bicycle, if it's a bicycle, you have to pedal. You can have the assist of a horsepower or 2, but ya still gotta pedal.

On your automotive safety/emissions rant - todays cars put out a small fraction of the "pre regulation" cars pollutants. They also are way more powerful, use much less fuel, and are more reliable than they ever were in the 60's. Safety improvements have been equally dramatic. You really don't know anyone who have been in a serious accident and walked away due to seatbelts/airbags/crushzones? You wanna try that in a Bug? PS - I like Bugs, and my first drivers license is at least as old as yours.

One last thing - yes, solar arrays, wind turbines, hydroelectric, geothermal - all have their issues but on a MUCH smaller scale than petro/coal/gas/nuke.

It's no wonder you have people telling you how wrong you are when so many of your "facts" are, indeed, simply wrong.