Have you stayed in a hotel lately?

Discussion in 'Americas' started by AK2ID, May 13, 2020.

  1. bikerman

    bikerman Adventurer

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    I will agree with Tucker’s reply you would be better on camping site and friends than hotels or motels or even abnb my 2 cents
    #21
  2. bikerman

    bikerman Adventurer

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    Hey Tlub thanks for the info but that’s a very scary ratios you gave us there! I didn’t know this multiplier factor between 2&4 could get 60 more people sick
    #22
  3. oldmanb777

    oldmanb777 Just say NO to socialism! It's a bad drug!

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    Thanks for a real world understandable explanation. :thumb Actually I meant Damn......:(
    #23
  4. BUZZARD II

    BUZZARD II Old Geezer

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    I worked my way through photography school in the late '60's as a maintenance/remake man in a hot sheet motel. Now this place ran 300 percent occupancy on a Friday or Saturday night. But still I know what and how rooms are "cleaned".

    It's safer camping and cooking for yourself. By a lot.
    #24
  5. -clinton-

    -clinton- Been here awhile

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    I didn’t read the entire post because it’s not my experience. My experience is.... I was in Tulsa last week. Hampton inn. No problems. No breakfast and no weight room. So I went to McDonald’s and essentially it was like every other nigh5 in a Hampton. Which equates to way to many. YMMV.
    #25
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  6. Roughrider1886

    Roughrider1886 Adventurer

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    I've stayed in hotels in the western oil patch. Dickinson ND and Gillette WY. The hysteria surrounding this virus is unbelievable. The CDC released the new morbidity numbers yesterday. IF you catch this virus you have a 99.77 chance of survival and it is estimated that at most, 70 percent of Americans will ever catch the disease if there is no vaccine ever developed. You have a much higher chance of getting killed on your bike ride to and from your hotel than you would from the virus itself, yet people take the risks of riding a bike in stride and lock themselves in their basements to avoid the big bad virus. Live life people.
    #26
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  7. Hill Climber

    Hill Climber Long timer

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    My 2 cents worth....

    99.77% chance of survival, but that number is flawed because it does not break the numbers down by age groups and demographics.
    A paper, published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases and funded by the UK Medical Research Council, analysed data from 3665 covid-19 cases in mainland China to estimate the admission rate among different age groups.

    It reported that 0.04% of 10-19 year olds would probably require hospital care—as would 1.0% of people in their 20s, 3.4% of people aged 30-39, 4.3% aged 40-49, 8.2% aged 50-59, 11.8% in their 60s, 16.6% in their 70s, and 18.4% of those over 80.

    The numbers are a debatable topic, but the fact remains, the older you are, the higher risk group you move into. Certainly not a .23% risk of death.

    The number "70 percent of Americans will ever catch the disease if there is no vaccine ever developed." Again, the number is unknown as there is little knowledge of how many persons are asymptomatic let alone the true number of persons who have the virus but don't seek treatment due to various reason.... and are spreading the virus.
    #27
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  8. Roughrider1886

    Roughrider1886 Adventurer

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    I'm reporting the latest numbers from the Centers for Disease Control. Is this significant, yes. Is this something that should stop the world? Not even close. For the last regular flu season for which numbers are available from the CDC, (2017-2018) they estimate there were up to 90,000 deaths in the US. Not only was the economy not shut down for the flu, this number has not even been widley reported in the media. If you are a member of a high risk group, you need to be concerned and take precautions. If not, be active. Get out and live your life. The science says 9977 out of 10,000 will survive and the vast majority of the 23 that wont survive are over age 80 and probably not throwing their leg over a seat and headed to Sturgis.
    #28
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  9. tellicotom

    tellicotom Been here awhile

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    90,000 die of flu without any shutdown. The thing I think your missing is that even with extensive shutdowns and social distancing, etc, the Covid number is still over 100,000 and climbing. How many would have died if we didn't shutdown...or will die as we open back up or get complacent??
    #29
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  10. Hill Climber

    Hill Climber Long timer

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    So basic math: Flu 90,000 + Covid 100,000 = 190,000 and the count from Covid will undoubtedly continue to rise. Sobering numbers to get ones head around.
    #30
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  11. ineptizoid

    ineptizoid I'm scared hold me

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    I wouldn’t call Comfort Inn or Towneplace Suites “higher quality,” necessarily, but what I experienced this past weekend was low occupancy, no breakfast, and masks (and gloves too, sometimes) being worn by employees. Super clean? Well yeah, appearance-wise at least, but I don’t know how often surfaces are being sanitized. I washed my hands a lot.
    #31
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  12. 72 Yamaha RD350

    72 Yamaha RD350 Long timer Supporter

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    Currently on a road trip in a car. Motel/Hotels are cleaner than ever. Same for restaurants. We’ve witnessed systems in place to insure regular disinfecting after every customer. No condiments or self serve items on tables. Laminated placards indicating disinfected or needs disinfected. Plexiglass barriers everywhere. Workers all wearing masks.

    I tend to believe our response as a country has been underwhelming in some regards and over the top in others.

    I haven’t witnessed too many touring riders out and I suspect that is a wise decision by the riding community for now.

    Give it another month and things will likely be back to normal west of the Mississippi but it may take a lot longer east of the river and in California. Montana still has a 14 day quarantine for out-of-state travelers.
    #32
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  13. jonz

    jonz Miles are my mantra Supporter

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    Montana 14 day in home quarantine requirement ends tomorrow, June 1. Which is the day I'll get back. Currently spending the night in a hotel in Beaver, UT. Front desk worker and restaurant worker wearing masks.
    #33
  14. tlub

    tlub Long timer Supporter

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    @Roughrider1886, Actually, the numbers for flu are significantly lower than that. Flu deaths are an estimate, because so many don't seek treatment. Thus, deaths are a range, and only available with a delay of several years, after statistical analysis is done. There is a 'most probably number' and a 95% confidence interval. The same will be true for Covid-19, and estimates of current under-counting are 30% to 100%. We won't know for a while.
    Flu deaths from the CDC:
    2010-2011: 37k (32k-51k)
    2011-2012: 12k (11k-53k)
    2012-2013: 43k (37k-57k)
    2013-2014: 38k (33k-50k)
    2014-2015: 51k (44k-64k)
    2015-2016: 23k (17k-25k)
    2016-2017: 38k (29k-61k)
    2017-2018: 61k (46k-95k) (preliminary estimate only)
    2018-2019: 34k (26k-53k) (preliminary estimate only)
    We have been through a shutdown, which undoubtedly helped keep cases and deaths down, and now 'only' a thousand or more are dying per day, on top of over 100k known, and probably 140k dead, this doesn't look like flu at all. We have had 1.83 million confirmed cases and 106k confirmed dead, with 406k recovered. That means:
    406/1830= 22% known recovered (the rest ongoing) and of the known (and ongoing) cases,
    106/1830 = 5.8% have died, as of 6/1/2020.
    Given that of the ongoing cases, (1830-406= 1.42 million), some will die, the known cases death rate is over 6% by a wide margin. Yes, there are unknown cases that lower that, but also unknown deaths that will raise it. Right now those are guesses; i'm dealing with documented cases.
    For influenza in 2016-2017, for instance, there were 29 million cases and 38K deaths. That's 0.13% deaths.
    Now tell me again, @Roughrider1886 , how a 5.8% known death rate, of a far more infectious disease (Ro between 2 and 3) , is equal to an 0.13% rate for a less infectious (Ro ~1.3) one. Because the numbers just don't agree wiith your fantasy.
    #34
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  15. AwDang

    AwDang Enabler

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    I’m sure there is a thread in the basement that would better suit y’all
    #35
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  16. slobinski

    slobinski easily amused

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    I've been looking at property near Salmon, Idaho since last summer. Made three trips there in my car since January, staying at the same motel. I've been getting the same room each time, without asking. Hmm. Seems very clean. Also I noticed they haven't been charging summer rates yet (was just there last week.) Local restaurants are open with plenty of spacing; the dining areas are squeaky clean.
    I'd say, go forth and travel, with a bit of caution. Most of these businesses are quite happy to have a customer.
    #36
  17. AK2ID

    AK2ID Been here awhile

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    Slobinski you will like Salmon. Small, mountainous cow town. Good place to live and play...if you like the out doors.
    #37
  18. slobinski

    slobinski easily amused

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    Thanks, I'd been through Salmon a few times on the way north to Montana. Looks fine to me, though it's apparently struggling a bit. Would be good to see more industry and jobs there. Got my eye on a place north of Leadore on the old highway. A little farther from the 'big city' than I'd like, but the place is roomy and what's more important, it has a nice shop.
    #38
  19. tlub

    tlub Long timer Supporter

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    Not church, not State, not money. Just numbers and science. No politics.
    If you want to see what a disease transmission and immunity model looks like, play with this. It's a model for any disease, this one called 'Fictionitis'. Put in 2.8 for Ro, which is the consensus value for Covid-19 when no precautions are taken, and 3% for the death rate (assuming it's only half as bad as the preliminary data says). Then put in 118 for how long immunity lasts. It's scary. Then put in Influenza, Ro =1.3, and death rate of 0.13%, and immunity of a year. Not so scary. The thing most people miss is that Ro is an exponent, not a multiplier.
    Yes, math is involved. And that is why staying at a hotel- or anything that involves interactions with other people- is still risky.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/
    #39
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  20. CaseyJones

    CaseyJones Ridin' that train

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    My thoughts exactly. I worked at an independent middle-price motel/hotel forty years ago, and saw and heard the secrets. Later, I was constantly traveling - employer provided lodging, and there was no alternative. Nass-tee.

    In times past, it wouldn't matter. We have a baseline resistance to filth and germs. But this virus changes everything.

    I got fortunate. Before the first of Beer Virus Panic, I had scored a small van that, so far, has served perfectly as a rolling bedroom and change-booth. With a good Gander Mountain cot and an oil-filled space heater plugged in...well, as Tom Bodett used to say about Motel 6...when you close your eyes, it all looks the same anyway.

    So, a commercial campground with power when I can get it; if not, stealth camp without heat.

    I expect it will be a long time before we can use hotels and public accommodations without any second thoughts.
    #40