I'm grounding my 1200 GS due to Covid

Discussion in 'Americas' started by AK2ID, Jul 12, 2020.

  1. AK2ID

    AK2ID Been here awhile

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    A few weeks ago I took a road trip around the central mountains in Idaho. I live in a remote county with only 2 Covid cases. My route passed through neighboring counties also with low Covid. I considered this a reasonable exposure risk.

    Since then things have changed. I just got back from a trip around the central mountains (93, over Hwy 12, down to McCall and back through Stanley along the Salmon River.

    What I saw changed my mind... First, the number of Covid cases in Idaho was steady at about 30 a day through June. Recently the number of cases has surged to between 400 to 500 cases a day. This is statistically real. Second, (and maybe the cause of the shift) is the very unusual volume of road tourists. I think folks are fleeing the cities or fed-up with their isolation, and now hitting the road. There are more out of state folks clearly set up to tour and camp. Cars/SUVs with packed roof racks, Sedans with bumper hitch loaded full. Trucks with trailers of all sorts, lots of motorhomes. Camp grounds are packed. I stayed in McCall and it was hopping. Lots of mixing and potential for exposure. Quite frankly, it was not fun...just weird.

    I am not a fearful person, but I am thoughtful. There is clearly a significant surge in Covid and lots of mixing from visitors from who knows where. I think exposure potential in Idaho is a full magnitude higher than a month ago.

    I am going to ground my GS and ride my 690 and drive my Jeep on the dirt.

    This posted is not intended to spark an angry assault about Covid and how I should live my life. I am just sharing my thoughtful perspective based on current events and recent travels.

    Be safe.
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  2. wbbnm

    wbbnm Long timer

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    I have seen a lot of comments about packed mountain tourist towns this year. You are probably right about peoples' need to just get out.

    So what do you think is the difference between riding the 690 in the dirt and the GS I guess not in the dirt?

    I have only been to McCall once. I thought it was a tourist trap zoo in the summer and would not voluntarily go back other than to pass thru.
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  3. AK2ID

    AK2ID Been here awhile

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    When I road trip on my GS I stay in hotels and have enjoyed larger towns (Salmon is only 3,500 people) with interesting places to dine.

    When I ride the 690, I camp. Hard to catch Covid from a pine tree.
    #3
  4. Parcero

    Parcero Mundial Supporter

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    The case count is higher because the testing is higher. Our testing capacity is light years ahead of where it was at the start. Almost all of these “cases” are asymptomatic—the people getting tested didn’t even know they had it. The daily death count nationwide is now so low as to put COVID-19 on the threshold of not even meeting the definition of epidemic, according to the CDC. What all of this means is that the mortality rate is really much lower than originally thought, closer to that of the flu.

    Imagine how different things would have been if people were told, “You probably have a close to 100% chance of contracting COVID. If you do contract it, chances are better than 99% that you won’t even know it. If you do have symptoms, your chances of dying are almost zero unless you have one or more of six known, identifiable pre-existing medical conditions.”
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  5. pckopp

    pckopp Aged Adventurer

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    My wife and I did a loop thru Idaho and Montana from Spokane a month ago. Basically, Spokane, Missoula, Dillon, Idaho Falls, Sun Valley, Boise, Pendleton, Spokane.

    As you say, the virus count was low then. We wouldn't repeat that now. Our state isn't doing well, either. We are doing day trips, packing our lunch, enjoying the views.

    Stay safe, indeed.
    #5
  6. SPX

    SPX Long timer Supporter

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    I am in Idaho right now (Coeur d'Alene) for work, and heading back to California today. Without getting political, what I see here is ... discouraging. There's close to zero masks being used. The people are literally stacked on top of each other in restaurants, hotels, bars, etc. Breakfast buffets are open at hotels, and guests are dining very close to each other, with ~30 people in a confined dining area space, with exactly zero wearing masks. This is not the recipe for success, Idaho...

    The comments above about testing being increased causing the case count to rise, I do not agree with. The percentage of tests coming back positive have skyrocketed. Percentages don't lie.

    I also do not agree with the comment above about "chances are better than 99% that you won’t even know it" if you contract Covid. The mortality rate may be 1% (admittedly, not awful) but that does not mean that 99% of the people don't even know that they have Covid.
    1. There are people that are hospitalized and recover, perhaps after weeks and weeks of hospitalization.
    2 There are people that are quite ill, but do not require hospitalization.
    3. And then there are those that are less than seriously ill, perhaps mildly or moderately symptomatic, but still sick.

    Groups 1-3 above consists of well over 1% of the infected population (information available to us suggests they consist of about 60-70% of those infected). So, based on the information available to us, I think a better statement might be "Imagine how different things would have been if people were told, “You probably have a close to 100% chance of contracting COVID. If you do contract it, chances are better than 30% that you won’t even know it."

    Now, back to "grounding" the GS.. Good for you, @AK2ID. In times like this, we must all do what we're comfortable with. I have no problem with people doing what is right for them. However, as human beings, we must be considerate of others. To me, that means not putting others in harms way because of our own choices, as best as possible. And in turn, we must all do our part .. avoid touching our faces, wash our hands, and when in company of others from outside our living circle, wear a mask. What's the harm vs the potential reward??
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  7. Little Faus

    Little Faus Little Faus

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    Well said, SPX. I have not heard one doctor agree with what Parcero said. Unfortunately, everything in our country has been politicized...even a pandemic! God help us.
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  8. Parcero

    Parcero Mundial Supporter

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    Anecdotally, I have been out an about just like normal since this whole thing started being deemed a so-called “essential worker.” I have been to Home Depot, Menard’s, and other suppliers every day (sometimes more than once) during “pre-mask” days. Grocery store several times a week. As for riding, I have put on more miles this year-to-date than I rode all of last year. Solo rides, group rides, the whole bit. I’ve been to dozens of eat-in restaurants since they’ve opened up. Don’t know anyone out of the hundreds of people that I interact with, nor do they when asked, who has had or died from COVID. Even among all my friends and relatives all over the world, not one has had it. We can’t all be that lucky.
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  9. Strong Bad

    Strong Bad Former World's Foremost Authority Supporter

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    Holy fuck.
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  10. Jamie Z

    Jamie Z I'm serious. Supporter

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    Yeah. Unfortunately he's not alone. A lot of people don’t care as long as it doesn’t personally affect them.

    I, too, am guilty of becoming a little more complacent recently. Things are starting to reopen. Seems like everything is getting better. But the truth is, we’re worse off now than we have ever been.

    Two weeks ago I took a loop through Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico. For the most part, I was able to stay a good distance from other people, and whenever I was inside a store, or around other people, I wore a mask. Most other people did not wear masks.

    I think what really opened my eyes was going through the Navajo (and other) reservation. The Native American people are getting hit hard. A lot of their elders are dying. There are handmade signs posted along the road saying things like “Please Stay Home.” The eastern entrance to Grand Canyon is closed at the request of the Navajo Nation.

    In New Mexico it was much the same. Native American signs asking visitors to stay home. And then I saw these very well-done murals.

    5BD2A3A4-3F48-4075-98A5-2E8492BAF9B2.jpeg

    58BA8220-C49A-41EC-B430-26102E0E2B13.jpeg

    Native Americans have a great sense of community, and it was seeing those signs and these murals that made me realize that I was part of the problems that they are experiencing.

    So though I may venture out on some day rides/drives, I’m going to keep to myself and do my best not be part of the spread of an illness that is killing our most vulnerable.

    Jamie
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  11. scottdc

    scottdc Been here awhile

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    The problem around here is isolation and quarantine worked well enough to keep the death rate down initially that many folks are saying "see it was nothing to worry about, look how low the death rates are" and then letting their guard down.

    Beyond that the death rate alone isn't the entire issue, this isn't a black and white matter of death vs survival. Many folks who are surviving covid will still have lifelong medical issues from it. Chronic respiratory problems and brain damage, for example.
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  12. AK2ID

    AK2ID Been here awhile

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    I too thought the initial higher count was due to increased testing. But, testing is only about 5 times more than through June while the number of cases has gone up x15. Also, even with hospitalization and deaths lagging, the number of available ICU beds has dropped (indicating an increase in hospitalization). The death rate is also sneaking up.

    I would like to dismiss this increase in cases as simply increased testing, but I see lots of folks visiting from Idaho A1, CA and WA. I can't be blind.

    I wish it was different since the best Idaho riding window is coming to a close as temps get too warm for my enjoyment.
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  13. JasonFL

    JasonFL Adventurer

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    Local news telling me we crushed the record today with 15,299 new daily cases here in Florida. I don't know what to think so much contradicting information coming from multiple sources, no doubt it's bad, some say stay home, wear a mask, don't wear a mask. ICU beds here at 90% capacity so I do know two things..
    One, I social distance and wear a mask.
    Two, heat never bothered me I still ride everyday and only death will change that.
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  14. Parcero

    Parcero Mundial Supporter

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    The “percentages are increasing” is the newest talking point. But what about the percentages of daily deaths and total deaths as a percentage of total cases? They don’t ever seem to get much mention, especially the mortality rate which dropped from the projected 4-5% to less than .5%.
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  15. SPX

    SPX Long timer Supporter

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    Do you have any statistics to support the .5% mortality rate that you've mentioned?

    Speaking of the US only, I am seeing 137,000 deaths over 3,290,000 cases, which is a mortality rate of 4.1%.

    Worldwide, I am seeing 571,076 deaths over 13,027,768 cases, which is a mortality rate of 4.4%.
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  16. Cal

    Cal Long timer

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    I would say that obesity which is ramp-id in America produces more lifelong medical issues. should we mandate some thing to help combat obesity? Maybe a vaccine to off set weight gain?
    Edit, I just looked it up 300,000 deaths each year due to obesity.
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  17. damurph

    damurph Cold Adventurer

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    When obesity is spread by a virus, sure.
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  18. Parcero

    Parcero Mundial Supporter

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    The CDC’s own antibody study estimated that infection rates are about 20 times higher than tests reveal, and thus point to a much lower infection mortality rate. There’s an important difference between case mortality and infection mortality. This is playing out as the percentage increase in cases aren’t translating into the same percentage increases in new deaths.

    Also, here in my home state of Illinois, our public health director has admitted on at least two occasions during live press conferences that all deaths in the state are tested for COVID, and that even if the cause of death is clearly due to something else, if the COVID test is positive, COVID is listed as the cause of death. In other words, if someone is shot in the head and dies (which happens quite often in Chicago) and they test positive for COVID, guess what? They didn’t die of a gunshot wound. It was COVID that did them in. It’s difficult to place much credence in the death count here, anyway.
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  19. JasonFL

    JasonFL Adventurer

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    I’ll expand on my misinformation comment.
    Last week my sister in law drove down to our testing site. She had to pre-register online. She arrived to an expected long line of cars. After waiting 2 hours she said forget this and went home.
    3 days later she gets a call saying her test returned positive and she needs to self quarantine.
    She never took the test.
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  20. Bultaco206

    Bultaco206 Back-to-back motos suck Supporter

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    I’ve heard multiple stories of the same thing happening here in WI.
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