Moto Trials affected by Covid-19....

Discussion in 'Trials' started by Norman Foley, Mar 5, 2020.

  1. motobene

    motobene Motoing for 49 years Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2013
    Oddometer:
    7,055
    Location:
    Wichita Mountains SW Oklahoma
    Nice bike!

    I rode a 125 Zundapp about 5 minutes way too long ago. I remember it was a revver not much on the bottom-mid. My `74 Penton with Sachs B motor felt a bit more potent than the Zundapp.

    As for NM extending restrictions, it's interesting to see the correlation between cautious control and party affiliation.

    As for NM being dry, it certainly was the last trip out after it seemed to be wetter in the winter months. I just thought it was a normal dry period between early spring and the post July 4 monsoon. It's going to be interesting to experience more of the variety of the high desert and mountain climate. Can't wait to get back!

    The drought monitor for NM and CO shows it's dryer to the north and there are two zones of D3 drought roughly along the border. Oklahoma's soils and more humid air masses act like a buffer to drought. I'm sometimes amazed at just how dry it can be in Albuquerque, even at D1 drought, with zapping dog noses with static discharges in the warm season... something that happens only in winter in OKie.
  2. lineaway

    lineaway Long timer

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2011
    Oddometer:
    11,322
    Location:
    nm
    Salt Lake City will host the last 7 rounds of Supercross!
    NBC AND NBCSN SUPERCROSS TELEVISION SCHEDULE
    Sunday, May 31 (250 East)… 3:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m. (NBCSN) & then 4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. (NBC)
    Wednesday, June 3 (250 East)…10:00 p.m to 1:00 a.m. (NBCSN)
    Sunday, June 7 (250 East)…5:00 p.m to 8:00 p.m ET (NBCSN)
    Wednesday, June 10 (250 West)… 7:00 p.m to 10:00 p.m. (NBCSN)
    Sunday, June 14 (250 West)…7:00 p.m to 10:00 p.m (NBCSN)
    Wednesday, June 17 (250 East)… 7:00 p.m to 10:00 p.m (NBCSN)
    Sunday, June 21 (East/West) … 3:00 p.m to 4:30 p.m ET on NBCSN & 4:30 to 6:00 (NBC)
    ridenm, Huzband, Norman Foley and 2 others like this.
  3. Vintage pro

    Vintage pro Been here awhile

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2013
    Oddometer:
    255
    Location:
    Stallion Springs , Ca
    I wonder who will be left in this screwed-up affair, 7 races in 3 weeks, no time to recover from injuries, no spectators, as a racer I couldn't get motivated to put 100% into my riding.
    Thesolidman1 likes this.
  4. lineaway

    lineaway Long timer

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2011
    Oddometer:
    11,322
    Location:
    nm
    Well the top 5 will be motivated to keep a job, the World is not the same job wise anymore.
    Huzband likes this.
  5. lineaway

    lineaway Long timer

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2011
    Oddometer:
    11,322
    Location:
    nm
    While we want to go play, the Navajo`s have nowhere to go!

    Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez announced that the Navajo Nation will have a 57-hour lockdown this weekend that will have stricter measures than previous curfews. Some essential businesses will be closed due to the community spread of COVID-19 — including grocery stores, gas stations, restaurants, drive-thrus, and other vendors.

    The curfew begins at 8 p.m. Friday and lasts through 5 a.m. Monday.
  6. motobene

    motobene Motoing for 49 years Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2013
    Oddometer:
    7,055
    Location:
    Wichita Mountains SW Oklahoma
    You made me curious, lineaway (uh oh).

    I tried to find good numbers on the present Navajo situation but found that difficult. I did find several articles from crisis-hype news outfits like NPR and Washington Post and in there I found numbers. Looking past their agendas I compared their numbers with other data.

    What's the true severity of the situation? I don't know, and anyone dying is bad. But...

    The 2016 Navajo nation population was 357,000. Let's say today it's 370,000. Of 20,000 people reportedly tested recently, an amazing 18% were positive. I don't know if the tests were for active virus or for antibodies. I will assume both, and symptomatic or not. Assuming this is an accurate sample of the whole Navajo nation population, 370,000 X 0.18 = 66,600 people have or have had the virus.

    But let's say the sample is optimistic or the tests are throwing a lot of false positives. Cut the number in half to 33,300. Now take 157 deaths and divide it by 33,300. That's a direct mortality of 0.005 (1/2 of 1%). But direct is not how mortality is typically counted. It's based on total population without respect to who is infected or not. It's looked at as deaths per 100,000 people.

    Looking at the whole population of Navajo country the number of deaths converts to 43 per 100,000 so far for Covid-19.

    I looked up influenza/pneumonia since 1999 and saw this:
    Navajo.JPG
    Navajo country, as you can see, is consistently above the national average for flu & secondary bacterial pneumonia-related deaths. So it follows that they will have a higher mortality from SARS CoV-2/Covid-19.

    The highest flu/pneumonia number in the graph for Navajo country is about 55 per 100,000 (0.001) and the lowest is about 19 (0.0002). Deaths from Covid-19 so far, at 43 are still less than the 2004 flu season. For context, the 1918 strain of H1N1 (swine flu) was estimated to have been 174 per 100,000 people.

    Let's say I've goofed and my numbers are wrong. Let's double the 43 to 86. That would make Covid-19 deaths worse than that of the 2004 flu, but not by double. And of course far less worse than 1918 H1N1. But in the news you'd think it was the end of the world!

    Covid-19 is bad stuff, but I'm still trying to wrap my brain around HOW bad.
    jonnyc21 likes this.
  7. motobene

    motobene Motoing for 49 years Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2013
    Oddometer:
    7,055
    Location:
    Wichita Mountains SW Oklahoma
    I can't go to sleep because I'm thinking about it, trying to get numbers to make sense. For context I found this:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2374803/#!po=1.02041

    Which contains this graph of a century view of influenza/respiratory death rates.
    Screenshot_20200518-002536~2.png
    Generally speaking we're just not dying off like we used to before 1980, and especially before 1950. I wonder how much of a bump SARS CoV-2, looking back on it later, is going to make on the second graph?
  8. TXNMGUY

    TXNMGUY dirt dobber

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2010
    Oddometer:
    237
    Location:
    Pagosa Springs, CO.
    Just popped up on my newsfeed. Navajo Nation surpasses NY for highest covid -19 Infection rate per capita. 2,304 cases per 100,000. Population of Navajo Nation is 173,667, 2010 census.
  9. slicktop

    slicktop Long timer

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2013
    Oddometer:
    1,096
    Location:
    Slicktop Mtn. Ar.
    Prayers sent
    DyrWolf likes this.
  10. Gordy

    Gordy SUPPORTER

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2001
    Oddometer:
    32,250
    Location:
    NM
    To where? Navajos, New York, or just in general to everyone? .....and do they have to be “targeted” to work?
    BTW, my friend is losing his restaurant because of this crap. Can we blame “someone”. :pope
    fprintf, Yinzer Moto and jonnyc21 like this.
  11. lineaway

    lineaway Long timer

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2011
    Oddometer:
    11,322
    Location:
    nm
    We could, but then this would be a political thread. ITs what happens when you cross a horseshoe bat with a common donkey. If it had been a mule, we would of had a fighting chance. Ever seen a mule kill a mountain lion? It bites the tail and beats the lion to death with it's own weight.
    Nothing good is going to come out of this whole mess. I am just ready to get back to riding events, so we can momentarily forget about this crazy world.
  12. 2whlrcr

    2whlrcr gooligan

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2005
    Oddometer:
    15,404
    Location:
    Dubuque, Iowa
    Not trials, but we've got a HS scheduled next week for the same place the Iowan Hard Enduro was held. This time I'm riding my KTM.
    Huzband, Brewtus, Gordy and 1 other person like this.
  13. slicktop

    slicktop Long timer

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2013
    Oddometer:
    1,096
    Location:
    Slicktop Mtn. Ar.
    Prayers sent to earth.
    Who speaks for the Iroquois in NY deaths?
    DyrWolf and Norman Foley like this.
  14. Gordy

    Gordy SUPPORTER

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2001
    Oddometer:
    32,250
    Location:
    NM
    Please give it a break. This is a trials forum. If you want to interject religion there must be a hundred places on ADV that would welcome the debate. But I, for one, am not begging for help from the guy who “created” it, K?
    Junglejeff1 likes this.
  15. slicktop

    slicktop Long timer

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2013
    Oddometer:
    1,096
    Location:
    Slicktop Mtn. Ar.
    My apologies.
    Gordy likes this.
  16. Brewtus

    Brewtus Buffoonery, Inc.

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2008
    Oddometer:
    7,286
    Location:
    Portales, New Mexico
    Exactly why I went and rode in "Open" Texas this past weekend. Lake Mackenzie was enjoying a LOT of Free Americans boating, fishing, ATVing, peddlers, trail riders, us Trials goofs, hikers, bird watchers, etc.... Wonderful time!! :-)
  17. motobene

    motobene Motoing for 49 years Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2013
    Oddometer:
    7,055
    Location:
    Wichita Mountains SW Oklahoma
    Got the number from Google. Sounded high to me. Maybe it's 200,000. That would up the death rate.

    I don't pretend to understand this craziness in all its complexity. It's hard even for the experts to ascertain the facts, really. The number don't square with the projections or the news, but I'm trying to avoid any conclusions other than people make mistakes.

    Like all black swan events some good and some bad will come out of the event. One bad will be a lot of 'stars' of former activity are going to wink out. Things that were barely tooling along before get pushed under water long enough to drown.

    Reminds me of when I made a mistake in pond building and created an unintended consequence. I added a third pond on the downstream side of two other ponds about 10 years ago. I made the dam about 10 feet too high, wanting to trap as much water as possible. Well it did just that in year two, and for about a month the water level was way high, and that killed a number of promising cottonwoods trees.

    I knocked one end of that big dam down into a spillway to stabilize the level. The cottonwoods seeded back and now it's looking pretty good again. It just took a while. Post virus will be like that, but it'll take a while.
    DyrWolf and Norman Foley like this.
  18. Gordy

    Gordy SUPPORTER

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2001
    Oddometer:
    32,250
    Location:
    NM
    I heard that the Navajo mess basically started with about 170 of them catching it at a detox facility then going back home, or to other facilities. It’s a.mess but really is a unique mess that you have to first understand Gallup and the Navajo interaction to begin to understand. I lived there for almost 30 years and barely do.
    What I do know is that it is not representative of anywhere else and is grossly skewing the numbers.
  19. DyrWolf

    DyrWolf Long timer Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2012
    Oddometer:
    2,713
    Location:
    RICHMOND VA
    so they should have stayed home unless they were going to support a restaurant?
  20. lineaway

    lineaway Long timer

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2011
    Oddometer:
    11,322
    Location:
    nm
    Then the fact of the 110 different chapter houses spread over their Nation. For being simple people, it is a very complex society they come from.
    Gordy likes this.