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The best rebuttal to EM skeptics

Discussion in 'Electric Motorcycles' started by ctromley, Dec 18, 2018.

  1. tallpaul63

    tallpaul63 Long timer

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    You’re right of course. I’d happily spend 4K, but they would have to hit a lower price point in the developing world. I think they will!
    #81
  2. Eatmore Mudd

    Eatmore Mudd Mischief on wheels.

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    Large scale demand for Lithium will quickly outpace currently obtainable supplies. When supply is tight prices goes up.
    Maybe a high / low approach could work as an interim. SLAB and NiMh batteries are way cheaper than Lithium, the constituent metals much more plentiful and more easily mined and processed at lower cost. Maybe SLAB and NiMh could do the deed for those 20 mile errands and Lithium could be be reserved for longer than SLAB range vehicles.
    #82
  3. mr72

    mr72 Been here awhile

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    Or maybe gasoline or diesel can work for long range vehicles. Crazy thought?
    #83
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  4. Cataract2

    Cataract2 Where to?

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    Sure, and the planet can become uninhabitable.
    #84
  5. mr72

    mr72 Been here awhile

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    Oh, give me a break. Like putting lithium in the water table or using children as slave labor in cobalt mines is any better for the planet than what are now extremely clean and efficient gasoline and diesel powered vehicles. Not to mention how "uninhabitable" the planet will be once we cannot move food from farms to hungry people or bring medicine to the sick because we stuck our heads in the sand and refused to develop a proven technology in favor of some ridiculous pie in the sky.

    I still contend that batteries are the wrong solution to EVs anyway. They should be powered primarily by wireless or other power embedded in roads and combined with self-driving car features, thus making batteries only required to get from your home to the powered roads. This is a tech that can work and has no impact on our current gas/diesel infrastructure, but it would require major changes in thinking about how we use personal vehicles. Infrastructure development towards distributed charging stations is largely a waste of effort. The good news is once we have wired in all of this power capacity to fueling stations, it's just a short hop to the road they are on to convert it to a distributed power network.

    Currently we are just moving a resource scarcity problem from one resource to another, and the truth is the environmental and human impact of mining and using heavy metals in batteries is orders of magnitude worse than for oil oil. Also, more electrical devices, which produce heat directly as the sole waste product of use, will contribute far more to so-called global warming than carbon dioxide ever could dream of if we were to truly convert en masse.
    #85
  6. Cataract2

    Cataract2 Where to?

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    :rolleyes

    Same tired old disproven arguments.

    https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/cleaner-cars-cradle-grave
    They even have the full report. I expect you can handle 54 pages.
    https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/defaul...ner-Cars-from-Cradle-to-Grave-full-report.pdf

    They have a recent blog post reaffirming it, by the way.
    https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichm...s-really-better-for-the-climate-yes-heres-why
    But go ahead. Please show us all your research.
    #86
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  7. ZoomerP

    ZoomerP . Supporter

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    Ok.
    #87
  8. tallpaul63

    tallpaul63 Long timer

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    Elon Musk suggested recently that battery tech is improving, and stated that 400 watt hrs per kilogram of battery is possible in three to four years. The current battery tech offers less than 250 watt hrs per kilo. He also suggested that these advances in energy density would make electric aircraft viable.

    I understand he’s controversial, has over promised at times. Still, given what he has accomplished, his claims are worth considering. It’s about energy density, and scalability.
    #88
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  9. ZoomerP

    ZoomerP . Supporter

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    It's getting closer.
    https://www.alaskapublic.org/2019/1...pletes-milestone-first-flight-near-vancouver/

    [​IMG]
    #89
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  10. SteveAZ

    SteveAZ Long timer

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    It's only decades away instead of centuries?

    Li-ion came out in the 80's and here we are 30+ years later just to get to this point and it's not like in the last decade the rate of improvement/economy is increasing... it just improves incrementally and historically the increments are getting smaller, not larger... even if you can make that 60% improvement in energy storage mass-density in several years (clearly I'm very dubious about this claim), what good is it if it costs 2× or has other serious limitations?
    #90
  11. tallpaul63

    tallpaul63 Long timer

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    I don’t claim to know more than you do. I probably don’t. But allow me to turn your question on its head: what if it costs half as much and offers advantages over current battery performance?

    I’m not making any such claims. I just think this is exciting stuff!
    #91
  12. Cataract2

    Cataract2 Where to?

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    Part of the reason is that money wasn't really being poured into research on batteries these last 30 years. There's been some, but not a ton. Now though money is pouring into research on them so improvements will and are coming faster. There is great interest in improved electrical storage now along with renewable power generation. Lot's of money to be made as well.
    #92
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  13. SteveAZ

    SteveAZ Long timer

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    Even with the money "pouring in" the improvements remain incremental and diminishing - there's no reason to think otherwise

    If or when there's some new technology that can make more than incremental improvements it will almost certainly, just like Li-ion, take decades to mature

    I'd embrace it if the opposite were true but there's no sense in being a pollyanna - frankly it likely does more harm than good by setting other people's expectations too high and setting them up for disappointment about the reality
    #93
  14. ZoomerP

    ZoomerP . Supporter

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    You're right. There's no difference between EVs from the 1980s and today, or even from ten years ago.
    #94
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  15. mr72

    mr72 Been here awhile

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    Wow. Complete straw man argument.

    In case you actually didn't understand the post, he was talking about battery technology, not EVs.

    Or to be more clear, it would have been useless to develop EVs (and was) 30 years ago because battery and charging technology was not sufficient to warrant investment. But in the past decade, lithium battery tech and charging safety has finally matured enough to make it (barely) viable as an automotive energy storage technology, so investment was made. However, the improvements in EV development are not directly contributing to what would have to literally be a new discovery in battery tech. Improvements in existing technology are only reasonably expected to be incremental or nearing a plateau.

    The whole idea of trying to charge a battery and carry it around to store energy itself is archaic. Further investment is probably a fool's errand. The entire EV's weight can be reduced by at least 30-40% if the weight of the battery is nearly eliminated. By reducing this weight, you reduce the energy required to move it, reduce the weight of all other components of the vehicle, reduce materials and material cost to build the car, reduce wear and tear on roadways, etc. etc. Huge benefits. The first application would make the most sense in public transit vehicles since they can follow a known route equipped with wireless charging and can prove the viability of the technology.

    See this:
    "Qualcomm is looking to develop their technology for charging while driving on the road with their Dynamic Electric Vehicle Charing technology. They have proved that they can charge vehicles traveling up to 70mph on a 100-meter test track using Kangoo electric vans."
    from https://www.fleetcarma.com/soon-wireless-electric-vehicle-charging-coming/

    which I found in like 20 seconds of internet searching.

    The problem with this kind of tech is that it runs counter to the current business model of most EVs. It seems the EV movement has made a bet on the luxury and high-end market, where the cost of the vehicle is far more than that of an equivalent ICE car. Coupled with government incentives this results in a reasonably high per-unit (potential) profit. But if a car like a Nissan Leaf were made with minimal battery, just enough to get from your driveway to the road that has wireless charging in it, then the cost of the battery comes off of the COGS and drives the entire vehicle towards the lower end. If you really care about the "environment" problem with ICE and truly believe EVs are some kind of savior then you should get behind a market strategy that will create millions of them at prices that compete with 20 year old smoking klunkers in 3rd world and developing countries, otherwise you are not going to make a dent.

    Or put differently, it's harder to look down on others who you disapprove of from your $5,000 basic EV that doesn't outrun Corvettes. Or, you're going to have to give up on the politics, let the "rich elites" keep driving their dirty old horrible ICEVs, since they are very small in number, and embrace EVs as basic transportation for the hundreds of millions who can't afford a $100K Tesla. Tesla is not going to lead this movement. Nissan might. Someone who can truly mass-produce vehicles for delivery all over the world and still make money at razor thin margins but make revenue on volume could. That's what it'll take.
    #95
  16. Tarmac Kid

    Tarmac Kid Doesn't Like Stuff

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    I don't have an electric moto but I do live in Tennessee and have a Nissan Leaf. We occasionally get the commie/homo car slurs. My go to response is along the lines of this,

    "Ah yes, a car built in a Tennessee factory employing Tennesseeans, bought at a Tennessee dealership, powered by electricity generated in Tennessee purchased through a Tennessee co-op. You're right, I wish I could give some money to Mohammed Bin Salman instead of all these Tennesseans." You can tell by the look on their face how little they know about anything.

    A plethora of stupid people live in Tennessee.
    #96
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  17. ZoomerP

    ZoomerP . Supporter

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    Not a straw man at all.

    My point was that what wasn't viable decades ago is much more so today, so the harping about battery tech, etc. misses the forest for the trees.

    That's reality for some people, and their number is growing.
    #97
  18. tallpaul63

    tallpaul63 Long timer

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    You make some good points. You may or may not be aware of Tesla’s future models and production goals, but they are definitely not limited to high end models for the elites. I think that’s just where they needed to get started in the industry.
    #98
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  19. Cataract2

    Cataract2 Where to?

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    You still spewing your BS? Never did get that well researched sources from you.
    #99
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  20. ZoomerP

    ZoomerP . Supporter

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    Given the general state of disrepair I see on roads in North America, the idea of adding a charge source to them seems more far fetched to me than competing technologies, but we'll see how it goes.