The tipping point is right around the corner.

Discussion in 'Electric Motorcycles' started by MJSfoto1956, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    Stanford University futurist Tony Seba spent the last decades studying technological disruptions. He argues that the Electric Vehicle, battery storage, and solar power, along with autonomous vehicles, are a perfect example of a 10x exponential process which will wipe fossil fuels off the market in about a decade.

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  2. Eatmore Mudd

    Eatmore Mudd Mischief on wheels.

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    I wish for it with all my hart but the reality is that it aint gonna happen anytime soon. It'll take few lifetimes IMHO because the infrastructure is lacking and it'll take that long to beef up what we have now and build what we don't have. LINK
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  3. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    For those of you too busy to invest the time to watch the 1 hr video on the upcoming transportation disruption, here is a link to the PDF version of the report: https://www.rethinkx.com/transportation/

    Executive Summary:

    We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport- as-a-service” (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value — but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.

    The disruption will be driven by economics. Using TaaS, the average American family will save more than $5,600 per year in transportation costs, equivalent to a wage raise of 10%. This will keep an additional $1 trillion per year in Americans’ pockets by 2030, potentially generating the largest infusion of consumer spending in history.

    We have reached this conclusion through exhaustive analysis of data, market, consumer and regulatory dynamics, using well-established cost curves and assuming only existing technology. This report presents overwhelming evidence that mainstream analysis is missing, yet again, the speed, scope and impact of technology disruption. Unlike those analyses, which produce linear and incremental forecasts, our modeling incorporates systems dynamics, including feedback loops, network effects and market forces, that better reflect the reality of fast-paced technology-adoption S-curves. These systems dynamics, unleashed as adoption of TaaS begins, will create a virtuous cycle of decreasing costs and increasing quality of service and convenience, which will in turn drive further adoption along an exponential S-curve. Conversely, individual vehicle ownership, especially
    of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, will enter a vicious cycle of increasing costs, decreasing convenience and diminishing quality of service.
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  4. Eatmore Mudd

    Eatmore Mudd Mischief on wheels.

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    Crying flippinn shame imho that we haven't been working steady as snails on EV infrastructure for the last 70 years.
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  5. E-luke

    E-luke Been here awhile

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    The writing is on the wall... I ride a Zero DSR, and have been on here scouring the forums for advice on purchasing a second bike (KTM 1190r), But now I’m turned off - again! Ha

    Great video. Cheers for the post.
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  6. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    He makes a lot more sense than the doom-and-gloom "peak oiler" crowd just praying for the STHTF. He makes a lot more sense than the pie-in-the-sky "technology will save us crowd". Instead he focuses on the economics that are driving the disruption. And the conclusions are pretty much spot on IMHO.
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  7. ctromley

    ctromley Been here awhile

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    Well, weren't we supposed to have flying cars by now?

    This guy says he has all sorts of killer techniques to more accurately predict the future, but it's still predicting the future, which is still a crap shoot. Especially when predicting the future of a technology that is changing so rapidly, and the direction of which will be dictated by stuff that hasn't been invented yet. Not buying it. You can't predict the future without at least a few known points along the path. With AVs, no one can even know what all the unknowns are. The path could go anywhere. This is just BS with big words.

    I'm certainly very confident that EVs are here to stay in a very big way. AVs, not so much. No one seems to want to admit to the mind-crushing complexity - and therefore the cost and difficulty - of developing an AV that can deal with the vast array of all the weird, loopy, totally unpredictable things that can happen on the road, and do so safely.

    There have already been a few deaths caused by AVs. One of them happened while the company-paid engineer was at the wheel, supposedly monitoring progress. We don't have AVs in public use yet, only advanced driver aids. Drivers are supposed to be paying attention. But they (predictably) let their attention wander because the car seems to be doing fine on its own. Until it doesn't. And someone gets hurt. The sensing and processing still isn't good enough for just driver aids to be sufficiently reliable, yet people are predicting we will have full-blown autonomy - which is a few orders of magnitude more difficult - in under 10 years.

    That's not just a bold statement, that's an irresponsible statement. Will we get there eventually? Yeah, probably. In less than 10 years? Extremely doubtful. If someone starts pushing it by then, pay attention to the accident statistics - I'm betting people aren't such lemmings that they'll support the 95% use rate this guy predicts, not even close. My WAG is closer to 10%, probably less. Check back here in 2030 to see who wins.

    AVs depend on rock-solid AI and failsafe sensing. Go online and search for examples of fun failures in the field of AI. Then try a rational justification of a prediction on the future of AVs.
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  8. jsinclair

    jsinclair Been here awhile

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    The same thing was said about every new technology, and they were wrong too.

    "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home." - -Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), in a talk given to a 1977 World Future Society meeting in Boston

    "The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad." - -The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford's lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903
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  9. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    What might seem "responsible" to you would likely be the exact opposite to an investor who has a fiduciary responsibly to provide value for his/her clients. The safe bet is with EV/AV technology blowing past ICE within the next ten years, with the tipping point coming in 2020-2022 timeframe. This guy isn't blowing smoke. He has real insight into how wealth is created. Once again, those in the denier class will lose out on yet another disruptive technology that will make those early investors fabulously wealthy. Me personally: I will be divesting of oil & ICE stocks this coming year.
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  10. inbred

    inbred Sweeter than Yoo-hoo

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    I'm inspired. I'm going out right now to buy an electric shaver. All my years with a straight razor are behind me!
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  11. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    A better bet would be to invest that money in some EV/AV stocks. Save your money. Become fabulously wealthy in ten years.
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  12. ctromley

    ctromley Been here awhile

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    Someone selling investments has a different take, and a different goal than mine. As an engineer, developing products that people use, one of my primary goals is to not kill or harm people. Tell me where in this report there is a discussion of making AV technology sufficiently safe. I'm betting all his predictions are based on an assumption of safety, which is not true today. And is much more difficult to achieve than most non-techies understand.
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  13. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    As a principal software architect directly involved in the business, I'll simply have to disagree with you. Notwithstanding, the opportunity for early investment is still there for those willing to put their money where their mouth is. What is irresponsible is the dogma of "playing it safe" with your retirement.

    M
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  14. ctromley

    ctromley Been here awhile

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    Let me be very clear that I am making no insinuations about your motives. I think it is entirely possible that you are trying to do the world a favor.

    However.

    It is troubling to me that you are emphasizing only the investment side of this issue. Even to the extent of accusing me of being "irresponsible" for pointing out flaws in the reasoning of an extremely speculative report, implying that I'm harming peoples' retirement portfolios(!!).

    It is also a fact that the people who benefit most by the "Hurry! Hurry! Do it NOW!" kind of promotion of investments are the ones who are already in and will directly benefit from any rush to buy. Again, not an accusation, just a statement of fact.

    As just one example of the challenges an AV must face, consider emergency roadwork to, for instance, repair a broken water main. Big construction equipment is needed. Lanes need to be blocked off and temporarily shifted. This is done by the workers on the ground, based on their interpretation of traffic disruption guidelines and the specific situation at hand. Different crews will do it differently. A variety of cones, signs and markers will be involved, perhaps improvised, with workers using "Slow" and "Stop" signs combined with hand signals, with the traffic stopping and going or alternating direction at random intervals.

    That's hard for some humans to navigate, and you're suggesting an AV can do it reliably and safely in 10 years? Keep in mind that simply stopping and waiting until it sees a situation that doesn't set off any system warnings is not a solution, because that stops all traffic dead. Letting the driver take over is not a solution, because the vehicle is fully autonomous, and may not have a licensed driver aboard. Having the workers somehow directly guide the AV through isn't feasible either, because developing and adopting a standard for doing that for all AVs in well under 10 years is ludicrous, and if you're banking on 95% of traffic being AVs by then it still bogs down the traffic terribly.

    Today we can't reliably see a lane-splitting motorcyclist. You're telling us that in 10 years AVs will actively interact with road crews in very close quarters, in situations that are the worst-case example of 'unpredictable' and 'undefined'. Not buying it.

    And all of that does not even scratch the surface of the issue of software security, and the ramifications that has for a populace being carried around in autonomous pods. The general public may not understand the depth of that hazard, but you and I do.
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  15. Olde Phart

    Olde Phart Olde Phart

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    I watched it in its entirety and observed numerous problems with his assumptions and comparisons. He may be a CS with an emphasis on AI, but he is no ME. Until he gets a better grasp on honest energy balances, I must dismiss much of the presentation as dishonest and magical thinking ... thermodynamics and entropy are a bitch and always win.

    Good 3 Laws to ya!!
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  16. E-luke

    E-luke Been here awhile

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    I hate to burst the cynical bubble, but he’s actually pretty spot on from my perspective.. I work for one of the largest auto manaufactirers and interface with product planners and all the executives. It’s pretty much excepted that 2021 is the date AVs will be on the roads - full functioning and legal. In what capacity - trial cities/fleet purchase etc - we don’t know, but we demonstrated full level 5 autonomy 3 years ago in a vehicle which, at that time, would cost around $120k due to r&d and expensive parts. As in his video, those parts are now cheaper than one tire on the cheapest car. We, along with most other manufacturers, have it ready to roll out in alignment with the 2021 date.
    He’s pretty spot on with the solar too. We’re also releasing our first solar panelled vehicles, with the vision that within 5 years it will be photovoltaic paint of some kind.
    Seriously, be ready for some HUGE change in the next 5 years, which you will see massively taken over by 10. Not just me or the video guy, but ALL us manufacturers are betting on it, and in fact laying the future of our businesses on it.
    The CEO of GM called, years ago, the death of the auto manufactuers.
    There’s a term which is basically widely accepted in our industry: “the future of vehicles is autonous, electric, and connected”

    I think the whole point of his video is: huge change doesn’t seem possible when your right on the cusp of a paradigm shift... I know the smart money, billion dollar industries, think tanks, and money itself, has already shifted. Now it’s just watching the grand game play out. The technology and economics have been viable already.

    For what it’s worth....
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  17. shinyribs

    shinyribs Thumpers for life

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    The powers that be aren't giving up selling us oil anytime soon, to start with.

    If we do move away from oil, American's aren't going to give up all their personal vehicles and travel by hired services. The video claims 95% of us will do that...in the next ten years, no less....is he a fortune teller? Guy's a Grade A bullshitter.

    Americans lover their freedom to move at will. Fuel burning personal vehicles is at the core of that. This nation is massive and EV's are only barely plausible for in-town use as it stands. Buncha daydreaming IMO.
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  18. E-luke

    E-luke Been here awhile

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    And the safety argument is the main argument for AV. Humans are responsible for 94% of road accidents. The current level 3 AV aid already studied to be multiple factors safer than a human. With the computing power and R&D it will make it multiple factors safer again.
    I love this conversation. It’s good to debate. But the one thing we can’t discount is that our minds can’t grasp the complexity because of the exact fact that our brains and bodies are limited. The sensors, lidar, radar and cameras are faster and quicker and work more comprehensively than us. Couple that with the computing power to crunch those algorithms, which is only getting more and more powerful (morse law) and its a no brainer. Literally.

    Again, it’s hard to grasp before the shift, but the main argument for AV is safety. And it’s already, statistically, safer. It can’t account for human decision making today, but it will one day. And if the goal is less deaths, over subjective “notions” of safety, then, quite frankly, it’s already won — statistically...
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  19. Eatmore Mudd

    Eatmore Mudd Mischief on wheels.

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    Add to that the facts that we just don't have enough materials, money, talent, and time to build a lifetimes worth of infrastructure in ten years or enough energy to run it and his prediction that gasoline will be off the market by 2028 is even more goofy. I don't think he knows about some of the things that Bill Gates is invested in and what Mazda has been up to either.
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  20. bkowal

    bkowal Been here awhile

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    I watched the first 10 minutes and immediately saw several problems with his assumptions. The most obvious mistake that many people make is comparing the growth of computing power to other technologies. You simply cannot do that. The factors that drive the cost and power of computing cannot be directly related to other systems or technologies, there is no valid comparison. Whenever I see this comparison being made, I realize that most of the presentation will loaded with false hopes and BS.

    As far as electric cars go, its all about the batteries and everything around them (performance, charging, cost). The simple truth is that by weight, gasoline has fifty times the energy density of the best lithium batteries. Ya, ya, the next battery breakthrough is right around the corner, been reading about this for decades. Will batteries get better? Sure they will. Will they get 50x better? Nope. For a hint as to why this probably won't happen have a look at where our favorite battery tech, lithium, is on the periodic table.

    The other little secret that nobody talks about is the energy cost of solar cells. The amount of energy required to manufacture the cells is about 10 years of the actual cells output. It takes a lot of energy to melt and process the sand (silica) into the cells. Combined with the relatively low cell efficiency and it isn't hard to realize that solar cells are not the answer.

    There will be a place for electric vehicles, but don't expect gas powered vehicles to go away any time soon.

    Lots of other problems with his presentation, but I will stop there.
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