The tipping point is right around the corner.

Discussion in 'Electric Motorcycles' started by MJSfoto1956, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. SteveAZ

    SteveAZ Long timer

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    I'd suggest that increases in Li-ion capacity is not exponential as described but asymptotic approaching a maximum capacity instead
  2. ctromley

    ctromley Been here awhile

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    Yes, for current thick-film processes used for present day cylindrical and pouch batteries. There will be a step change improvement with the lithium solid state batteries coming, a rapid increase from there that tapers off, then another step change when new chemistries come up, which today looks like the carbon-based proton batteries. (They will also be in solid state form, which will likely remain the standard format for the foreseeable future.)

    We still have a lot of ground to cover.
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  3. hamiamham

    hamiamham Been here awhile

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    can we achieve the tipping point thru a lowering of the cost of the batteries alone or do we still need range improvements
  4. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    Recall that 50% of the world's population live in cities. Another 30% live in suburbs/exurbs. So range is not really the issue for these folks. The only people not being addressed by current EV technology are those who live "out there". In Europe they have an answer for that: take the train. Here in the USA we ain't got that option having thrown our train system away many years ago.
  5. ctromley

    ctromley Been here awhile

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    Just about all the challenges current lithium batteries pose for EVs are addressed by solid state. Not only do they pack more energy and power in less size and weight, and at lower cost, they also promise to accept much larger charging currents. How much of each of those improvements we'll get from the first examples to hit the market is hard to say, but it gives us options to get a long range EV if we need it. Or a shorter-range one for less money, but one that can be quick-charged much quicker.

    Quick charging is more of a question though. It depends on whether there's a demand, the infrastructure needed and physical limits like massive cables that require liquid cooling. Or even a charging standard where you basically drive up to the charger and couple your vehicle in like a locomotive backing up to a rail car.

    Seems to me the preferred choice will be to carry more capacity on board, but this is all far enough ahead that all we can do now is speculate.
  6. SteveAZ

    SteveAZ Long timer

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    Or for touring, no matter where you live

    At this point I don't see electric as an option for touring and that's a huge portion of my moto and 4x4 use, and significant with the car

    I might consider an electric commuter vehicle in addition to vehicles that can tour but only if the costs come down considerably
  7. tallpaul63

    tallpaul63 Long timer

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    I am pretty optimistic about the potential for electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, and fleets of vehicles that are rented rather than owned. Making money on these new technologies as an investor is not a given though. You will have to pick properly among many players in the game, and may find that the particular horse you bet on will not perform well. I suppose one could look for a safe bet, say on a company that would provide software/hardware to a multitude of car companies for autonomous vehicles. Google perhaps? Or one could hope for a new battery technology that represents a quantum leap in performance, and invest at the right time. Good luck.
  8. jsinclair

    jsinclair Been here awhile

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    If your afraid to take a Tesla on a road trip , a PHEV would be a good stepping stone for you. We love our i3.
  9. Seth S

    Seth S Will _____ for _____

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    I'm totally on board for electric vehicles. My only concern is what is the ecological impact of extracting the materials needed to produce batteries as production of EV's increases. Does this drive an explosion in open pit and strip mining of various third world countries or do we already have a vast amount of materials on hand....truly have no sense of the reality on this.
  10. ScottieDucati

    ScottieDucati Adventurer

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    It’s not even comparable. And only 5% or less of a battery is lithium. The majority of what’s in a battery are used in other applications. There is no comparison between what is greener. Buying a new EV is greener than continuing to drive the car you already have.

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  11. Cat0020

    Cat0020 El cheapo

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    So that makes it ok to keep burning oil & put exhaust into the air... that seems right to you?
  12. emptyHead

    emptyHead Adventurer

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    The other problem many city apartment dwellers have is that they don't have a dedicated parking spot with access to a charger. There's a lot of street parking or open lots or rented spaces in big shared garages. Homeowner commuters can have their own charger to use overnight, and are served very well by an electric car.

    But in the US, even in dense cities well served by mass transit, there are still a lot of cars parked on the street every night. They gotta charge somewhere. I wonder if swappable battery packs like propane cylinders but be a partial answer for this.
  13. Seth S

    Seth S Will _____ for _____

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    Talking to me?
  14. FTL900

    FTL900 White and nerdy

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    1. Lighter batteries would be better.
    2. Smaller batteries would be better.
    3. Higher capacity batteries would be better.
    4. Faster charging batteries would be better.

    Any of those is a step in the right direction, but it's going to take improvements in most (or all) of those areas to become viable on a wide-spread basis.

    IMO, the best way to advance the electric vehicle is to create a universal standard for plug-in battery packs that can be swapped for a fully charged one, similar to a drill or other battery powered tool.
    The problem with that is high capacity battery packs would be large and heavy, and located all in one place within the vehicle. Or you could have two smaller ones, in the front and rear, but they'd still be big.
    Tesla does a good job of spreading the weight and keeping it down low, but that won't work well for a removable/replaceable battery pack.

    The other challenge with this 'new' technology is the cost of replacement of the car you already have with an electric vehicle. When computers became popular, nobody had one already. The same with the first smartphones. But with vehicles, we don't NEED to buy an electric car to go places. So people will hold onto their ICE vehicles for some time to come, because of the high cost of migration to electric. If electric vehicles got cheaper than ICE vehicles, that would be significant.

    We drove to the north rim for my GF's birthday recently. It was a 5 hour drive to get there, and it wouldn't have been possible in an electric car. When we left, we drove north through Utah and the Duck Creek area, making an even longer loop to get back to Las Vegas. Again, not a viable option. In fact, I'd hesitate to drive to LA in an electric. It MIGHT make it there, it will PROBABLY make it there, but, if it doesn't, you're pretty screwed. And it's not like you can stop for lunch and have a fully charged car afterwards. It's not like you can just stop and 'fill it up'.
  15. Seth S

    Seth S Will _____ for _____

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    A friend bought a Hyundai Kona and I test drove it the other day. It was great EV with excellent range and though it was about $42,000 he got about $9000 in tax credits or however that works. But he put it really well.... Its not a $42,000 car but a $25,000 car with a $15,000 battery pack. Would love to get one but financially it doesn't make sense for me right now. If gas price triples or quadruples in the near future or if I can pick up a decent ranged ev for $25k then its more of a possibility.
  16. jsinclair

    jsinclair Been here awhile

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    Actually you can... To 80% at least
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  17. ScottieDucati

    ScottieDucati Adventurer

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    Next-gen EV batteries are coming by ~2022-23 or so and are targeting very fast rates of charging and significant energy density improvement. It’s closer than you think.
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  18. SteveAZ

    SteveAZ Long timer

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    I'll believe it when I see it - and I'd love to see it but I'm very dubious about all the unbridled optimism in secondary electrochemical cells for energy storage as a practical competitor to liquid fuels anytime in the not too distant future when it comes to touring
  19. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    Get in line, or get left behind.
  20. Seth S

    Seth S Will _____ for _____

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    In 1980 the Audi Quattro was an unreliable piece of crap and one of the first awd c

    I believe the exact same words were spoken not too long ago by horse owners everywhere.
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