The tipping point is right around the corner.

Discussion in 'Electric Motorcycles' started by MJSfoto1956, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. liberpolly

    liberpolly Nu, shoyn, nudnick!

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    My point is even if they did want them they couldn't buy them because Tesla is struggling to keep up with the demand.
  2. SteveAZ

    SteveAZ Long timer

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    That doesn't bode well for tesla since compared to ICE vehicles the demand is quite small
  3. _CJ

    _CJ Rugged Individualist

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    Let's not forget that Tesla runs at a net loss, and revenues have been declining for the past year. It's nothing but a billionaire playboy's social engineering experiment. What happens when he gets bored with it? Hard for the average working class slob to invest such a sizable chunk of his income in a product/company that's so unstable, which I suppose is why they've started leasing vehicles more and more.

    [​IMG]

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  4. ctromley

    ctromley Long timer

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    Hmmm, is that the faintest whiff of bias I detect? "Social engineering experiment?" Seriously? We're talking about replacing the power source in personal transportation in order to slow the fouling of the planet we all call home.

    Musk is doing a Good Thing, and doing it by putting his money where his mouth is. Most people think highly of people like that. There are some things he's done that I strongly disagree with, but EVs would not be anywhere near as advanced as they are today if Musk hadn't delivered on one ballsy project after another. Blazing trails isn't easy or cheap. If you looked beyond your graph and dug into a little history concerning what Tesla was doing during periods of losses (i.e. where they spent their money), you'd see they were building a foundation for the future. (And BTW, revenues are not declining - they have merely re-adjusted after the understandable spike from production capacity catching up to pent-up Model III pre-orders. A graph is simple, but only the simple-minded take it as gospel without looking at the activities behind the numbers.)

    I've said it before, and anyone familiar with young businesses will confirm: growth has a voracious appetite for cash. Look at what Musk has built so far - mass production assembly lines, gigafactories, grid storage facilities, solar installation capabilities. All in a world that is coming to the inescapable conclusion that continuing the burning of fossil fuels cannot last much longer, and it harms every living being on the planet to try.

    And you call Musk's plan "so unstable"?!?!? Have you lost your flippin' mind? He'll be the one holding all the cards when the deniers are finally forced to admit that they were the hoax*.

    Disclaimer: I have no financial stake in Tesla or any of Musk's companies.

    * If you think I'm some kind of sheep who is gullible enough to buy into the 'global warming hoax', here's something that will make your head clank. The only governmental entity on the planet that promotes the denier gibberish is the American Republican party. Republicans are also staunch supporters of a strong military. But the American military has been telling Congress for decades that climate change is real and will harm military readiness dramatically unless its effects are mitigated. So the Defense Department is doing what they need to do on their own, with help from Congress where they can get it, and making little noise about it.

    Climate change is real, and must be dealt with. So they're dealing with it. Reality is what it is. Politics can distance itself from reality within limits, so politicians will do that as long as they can if it helps them politically (until reality inevitably imposes itself). It would be tempting to say that the fantasy world deniers live in is just a call-and-response game between idiots and liars. But there aren't really that many people who are that idiotic. There is something else driving otherwise reasonably intelligent people to pursue such a fantasy, especially one that ultimately harms us all. I don't know what it is - could it be as simple as not wanting to be told what to do? Even when the stakes are so high? That is a question that the psychological profession needs to investigate.

    In the meantime, if you want to discern reality from fantasy, look to the people who are actually doing things and making things happen. Successful people can't be successful if their actions are built on fantasy. If you're looking for affirmation of your views from politicians, talking heads and right-wing screamer sites instead of the scientists who study this stuff for their entire careers, you're doing it wrong.

    I find it just a little beyond suspicious that the deniers happily suck down everything science gives them, until they're told society is on a dangerous path and we need to change our behavior a little. Then all of a sudden only those scientists who make such a suggestion are all in on some evil global conspiracy, but all those other scientists who continue to give us good stuff are OK. If we saw that behavior in children the conclusion would be obvious. Why is it not when adults do the same thing?
  5. _CJ

    _CJ Rugged Individualist

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    Fan-boy alert! :lol3

    As for the rest, I didn't say anything about climate change or anyone's political leanings, but I guess we all know where you stand now....not that anyone asked. :rolleyes



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  6. ctromley

    ctromley Long timer

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    As I said, I'm not really a fan of Musk. But I give credit where it's due. I also try to correct misguided posts when they're way off base, and yours was pretty 'out there'.

    One of the reasons society seems to be heading off the rails is peoples' access to platforms where they can throw any thought salad that springs to mind on the internet, where through the magic of liking, re-posting and cross-posting it becomes someone else's "facts".

    Reality is what keeps our species viable. Our taste for fantasy could very easily do us in. Try a little critical thought. Everyone benefits.

    Words have power. Use it ethically.
  7. _CJ

    _CJ Rugged Individualist

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    That's quite an ego you have there.

    Nice hat though.


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  8. liberpolly

    liberpolly Nu, shoyn, nudnick!

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    Nonsense. It is normal for a startup to operate at a loss until it captures the market. At this point, Tesla "has" the EV market, and can switch to optimizing the costs while ramping up the volume to meet the demand. And, revenues have not been declining - Q3/18 and Q4/19 anomaly aside, the chart still goes up exponentially.
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  9. ctromley

    ctromley Long timer

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    Not really ego, just confidence in the facts. And utter disdain for people who play fast and loose with facts.

    Pro tip: Responding to a rebuttal of your comments with a personal attack is another way of saying, "I got nothin' here, but I don't like being embarrassed and need to say something." It's not a good look for anyone.
  10. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    "Nice hat though" is a cocksure diss. Not cool.
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  11. _CJ

    _CJ Rugged Individualist

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    :lol3

    You guys are hilarious!



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  12. Cataract2

    Cataract2 Where to?

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    And you got nothing. How new.
  13. _CJ

    _CJ Rugged Individualist

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    :lol3


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  14. Cataract2

    Cataract2 Where to?

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    Still nothing.:bore:snore
  15. wheresbaoskee

    wheresbaoskee Perpendicular to Everything

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    That's a very well reasoned and explained Use Case that is currently outside the bounds of EV capabilities and infrastructure. I am curious. LTO Batteries are starting to show up in market on smaller vehicles. The claim there is that batteries of that type can sustain extremely high charging rates - with claims of charging to 80% within 15 minutes on smaller vehicles like cargo-trikes.

    Hypothetically speaking, if a 4-wheel vehicle could charge to 80% in 15 minutes, how would this change your calculations, if at all?

    Some reference:

    https://www.ev-power.eu/LTO-Tech/

    https://electrek.co/2018/10/02/gaius-rapide-3-electric-cargo-scooter/

    Again, strictly hypothetically. LTO seems to be a fairly new tech, is hideously expensive, and if used in a larger vehicle would, I assume, charge more slowly than a trike on currently existing charging stations due to the difference in capacity. Someone please correct me if that's an false assumption, lol.

    But I'm interested in the hypothetical. For folks outside the standard use cases, what charging rate would tip the scales in favor of switching to an EV.

    Also, if there are other objections beyond the charging rate and range anxiety?
  16. hamiamham

    hamiamham Been here awhile

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    it maybe decades - if ever - before there is an electric ________ (car, suv, pickup, semi, etc) to meet everyone's needs.

    the tipping point - and I understand it and in the context of this discussion - will be when ev's go from a niche product to mass adoption.

    100+ years after the introduction of the autobobile, people still use horses for transportation. A few people...
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  17. liberpolly

    liberpolly Nu, shoyn, nudnick!

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    Tesla is currently outselling everything else in the luxury car segment in US, by a huge margin:

    https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/18/tesla-model-s-37-of-large-luxury-car-sales-in-2018-in-usa/

    upload_2019-11-3_17-29-50.png
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  18. SteveAZ

    SteveAZ Long timer

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    Fifteen would be pushing it a lot and it depends on how much range that would give, <200mi is not anywhere near enough for a fifteen minute wait, 400mi more practical. If there were enough stations in the backcountry, enough other value and a low enough entry cost then it might be acceptable but there would have to be a lot of value to endure 15min fills
    Up front cost - I pay 100% and have zero interest in leasing, loans, etc.
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  19. emptyHead

    emptyHead Rookie

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    The largest slice of a shrinking pie. Big sedans are a niche. Chevy sold twice as many Tahoes alone in Q4 '18 (34,328) than everything on that list combined. Suburbans lag behind that at 20,392. Large luxury vehicles are SUV's

    I'd really like an electric as a commuter, and I'm looking, but between the hitch-mounted motorcycle carrier, a 900 mile trailer tow to move my daughter, a fully loaded 5000 mile week to take care of things for my folks this year, the SUV isn't going away for a while.

    That's why I don't care all that much about charge times, personally. The daily grind will be a Bolt that charges overnight at home. Road trips will be a used SUV
  20. liberpolly

    liberpolly Nu, shoyn, nudnick!

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    Yeah this is why Tesla is bringing out the compact SUV now. Most likely, many people will keep their old big SUVs for occasional use until they fall apart. Then, they will find that renting for such occasions is much cheaper.
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