The tipping point is right around the corner.

Discussion in 'Shiny Things' started by MJSfoto1956, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. ScottieDucati

    ScottieDucati Adventurer

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  2. Rogue_Ryder

    Rogue_Ryder

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    Anyone today that is young would have to have their head examined if they were trying to pursue a career as an OTR Trucker. The biggest issue is rates haven't increased since the 1970s! It's also a job with a poor quality of life and with automation and a push to move more long haul goods back to rail it's not a good place to be for the long term. Even with the current industry driver shortage, my guess is that's only temporary; the industry might be short 50,000 drivers but in 10 years that number could become the surplus number of drivers.

    If the Teamster's didn't bully businesses in the 1960s and 70s most long haul moves would have continued to be by rail with branch lines into industrial parks, large warehouse and factories to deliver goods across the country. The vast number of OTR trucks keeps Diesel prices high, makes the price of consumer goods higher AND our Interstate highways get clogged up with truck traffic and have taken a beating in the last 40 years. Trains are far more efficient than a truck just in Fuel (73.1% more efficient) not to mention you're paying 1 driver of the train where you'd employ a dozen truckers or more to move the same amount of goods. In order to get less OTR trucks and more movement via rail, we'll need to get off of coal (the amount of coal that moves by rail just by casual observation has to be millions of tons a week), build more pipelines for oil/crude movement and build more rails (the current infrastructure of rails is pretty close to max capacity).
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  3. thumpism

    thumpism Between bikes

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    The very recent bankruptcy of Celadon has freed up about 3,000 drivers and other companies are swooping in to get them.
  4. Yamarocket630

    Yamarocket630 Honey Badger

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    Maybe it's been mentioned already, but based on the USA's gasoline usage in 2018, we would need to generate an additional 3.9 BILLION KW/H of electricity to replace all those ice cars with EVs... Just the gasoline ones. That's assuming all those gasoline ICE engines are at least 30% efficient, which is probably a stretch.

    Sure, some of that gasoline was used for lawn mowers, light construction equiptment, boats etc, but most of it went into our cars and @WARRIORPRINCEJJ 's trucks. Once gasoline become really $$$ and hard to get, that stuff will go electric too. Except for @WARRIORPRINCEJJ that is.
  5. liberpolly

    liberpolly Nu, shoyn, nudnick!

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    Total solar power alone in US generated 63 BILLION KW/H of electricity in 2018, compared to 53 in 2017: https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec7_5.pdf

    So 3.9 BILLION KW/H is literally a rounding error.
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  6. Yamarocket630

    Yamarocket630 Honey Badger

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    Yeah, so my math was way off. I messed up.

    I arrived at my numbers this way. The US used about 385-390 million gallons of gas line per day in 2018. In a perfect conversion, there is something like 36kw/h of electricity equivalent in a gallon of gas. Assuming most engine are 30% efficient at turning gasoline into mechanical energy, that's 4 billion kw/h per DAY.

    That being said, I drive an electric car and quite like it.
  7. CodeMonkee

    CodeMonkee Geek Adventurer

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    One of the benefits of EVs is that even if the method for charging them comes power generation sources that are dirty (coal, etc.), the power generation can be cleaner than a vehicle. This is generally true because the generation is typically stationary, much larger and more expensive than the vehicle - so the generation source can be able to clean its emissions much better than a much less expensive vehicle that has weight/size and cost limits. Also, the generation plants can be and often are, outside of metro areas - vehicles on the other hand usually concentrate in metro area where their pollution becomes a problem - especially due to traffic congestion.

    I live in the Pacific Northwet, where most of our power generation is hydroelectric (most of the rest of it is either solar or wind power) which is essentially solar power when you think about the fact that the water comes from the weather which in turn is powered by the sun. The downside is the carbon impact of building the dams - but my understanding is that this is a 'sunk cost' - i.e., already incurred.
  8. tominboise

    tominboise Long timer

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    Also the impact to the environment ie killing off the fish runs, etc....
  9. T.S.Zarathustra

    T.S.Zarathustra Been here awhile

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  10. FPGT72

    FPGT72 Long timer

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    I am pretty glass half empty where this electric, self driving, bla bla bla stuff goes. Partly because I am old (so I am told) but mostly I think it is going to be a much longer time coming then most people think.

    When you can go for 0 to full inside of 10 minutes and that full will take you 300 miles with the AC, heat, butt massage, heated beverage holders, tunes blasting at 100db, the kids in back running their movies on 3 different screens....then electric will take off like anything. That is not going to happen for a very long time....at least 50 years. Then you need the places to recharge the things....all over the country.

    As soon as an electric car works exactly and I do mean EXACTLY like a "gas" car and is not expensive or require guberment support for people to buy the thing....people will buy it. The simple truth is they are not OVERALL better then a "regular" car....sure they do some things better....usually for a shorter time, with a longer down time between those better things....but they are not what people want.

    Personally I think electric cars is a dead end....for all the reasons already talked about....the electricity has to come from somewhere....that those somewheres are not that great.....and the options for different ones THAT WILL WORK....are not that great as well.

    There are other thing we can use to "fuel" our cars that will work better and are more friendly to the planet....but those don't have the backing because this dead end electric thing is taking all the steam out of any other options....shame.
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  11. CodeMonkee

    CodeMonkee Geek Adventurer

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    The numbers are quantitative. I am talking about the qualitative aspects of the power generation. I am not saying coal is more desirable. I am saying that when you compare the qualitative aspects of coal electrical power generation to be used by EVs, you have to take into account that a coal gen plant can (and usually is?) located outside a metro area, whereas petroleum (gasoline, diesel, CNG, propane) powered vehicles are primarily used within a metro area, and the pollution concentrates there. The coal plant can be designed and built to remove a LOT of the pollution that coal power creates because the cost, weight and size constraints are much less compared to any vehicle. Plus the emissions are outside the metro area and have a larger dispersion area for the emissions so they are not as concentrated.
  12. CodeMonkee

    CodeMonkee Geek Adventurer

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    Yes, there is certainly that - combined with the overfishing, this is getting more visibility now. Some of the smaller dams on smaller rivers are being removed, but I doubt that any of the dams on the Columbia will be removed in my lifetime.
  13. CodeMonkee

    CodeMonkee Geek Adventurer

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  14. liberpolly

    liberpolly Nu, shoyn, nudnick!

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    Tesla is there today.
  15. Yinzer Moto

    Yinzer Moto Long timer Supporter

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    Mostly, the charge time is a little longer than 10 minutes.
  16. liberpolly

    liberpolly Nu, shoyn, nudnick!

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    Tesla V3 Supercharger can charge at the rate of 15 miles per minute. So 10 minutes gets you the next 150 miles.
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  17. tominboise

    tominboise Long timer

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    I am hoping that I see it in my lifetime - removal of the 4 dams on the lower Columbia
  18. liberpolly

    liberpolly Nu, shoyn, nudnick!

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    Coal is dead end, but natural gas is definitely much polluting than gasoline cars. The thermal efficiency of big turbines is double that of ICE, and filters are much more efficient. But in the bigger scheme of things, we should concentrate on the nuclear energy for the baseload, and solar for the opportunistic and peak demand.
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  19. Yinzer Moto

    Yinzer Moto Long timer Supporter

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    Wow, that is damn, good.
  20. Yinzer Moto

    Yinzer Moto Long timer Supporter

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    Speaking of emissions, I just read that Carnival cruise lines emits 10x more SulferDioxide in Europe than all of Europe’s cars.
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