The tipping point is right around the corner.

Discussion in 'Electric Motorcycles' started by MJSfoto1956, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. E-luke

    E-luke Been here awhile

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    I’m not an expert on that, but I just checked to see the stats. According to the US department of energy, “...in 2019, most of the nation’s electricity is generated by coal, natural gas and nuclear.”

    afdc.energy.gov

    Facts not feelings.
  2. keenerkeen07

    keenerkeen07 Adventurer

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    you are looking at your PC..Lap top right now ...yes ? what is it made from? Petroleum based products ....it lives with us ...it is in a way us.. time for a reality check and as an energy source it is the mother ..good or bad its here to stay .

    oh and fire up that ..single , V twin , triple or four and just ride it ffs
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  3. HuntWhenever

    HuntWhenever Motorcicle Commuter

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    I have used this same argument many times in similar debates, and you explained it very well. I've always had a this saying in engineering..."If the simple things are difficult, the difficult things will be impossible". We can't fully automate the simple things, so how will we ever automate the difficult things.

    I'll add this point...the AV industry doesn't seem to be taking many ques from the industrial automation industry...and it should. Industrial automation may be much simpler, but it has a huge history of dealing with people interfacing with automation, and has learned many (often hard learned) lessons. Most of the unhandled exceptions in AV scenarios would never fly in industrial automation safety. An operator has to take control of the vehicle if the vehicle cannot respond to the current situation? That's like saying "This stamping press will stop if you stick you hand in the light curtain, but watch out...sometimes it doesn't stop." The mean time to failure on industrial safety controls in huge, and the performance level of safety sensors and control elements is very high. But somehow we expect less of heavy things flying down public roadways?

    There is also a paradox in automation performance. The better the automation performs, the more critical the consequences of any failure in the automation. For example, lets say someone commutes daily in an autonomous vehicle. For 5 months the vehicle operates with no need of operator intervention. Then one day, an unhandled exception occurs and the person must take control of the vehicle. This person hasn't operated a vehicle in 5 months. Assuming the person was awake and alert when required to take control, that person may not have the skills to take adequate control. Emergency braking, swerving, and other complex maneuvers are perishable skills, and a driver that's not occasionally engaged with their vehicle will not be able to perform these tasks...the very tasks likely needed in the event that the vehicle cannot handle current events. Now project that concept. Same scenario, but we'll say the person hasn't operated a vehicle in a year. They might not remember where the brake pedal is. System performance has to be close to 100% before AVs are viable. We're no where near that. Anyone riding along in these vehicles are guinea pigs.

    I commute / travel around 30k-35k miles a year, and have since about 2001. I had a fender-bender in 2002 that was my fault. With that exception, I have not had any accident in all these year, and only a couple close calls that were avoided by defensive (and predictive) driving. When you consider those miles are spread out over all four seasons (in Ohio), multiple types of roads and road surfaces, all times of day...that is a tough performance level for an automated system to reach with no external involvement. Sure, 94% of accidents are caused by drivers...right up until 94% of accidents are caused by programming.
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  4. Eatmore Mudd

    Eatmore Mudd Mischief on wheels.

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    Got 'em out of order, thanks for catching that.

    So natural gas comes from where ? The same place as oil and coal and uranium does, earth. Burning those to make electricity to move AEV's or burning them to run your engine, they are burned. Only way AEV's are going to stop "the tipping point" and save the planet from us all is if AEV's are reserved for the social elite only and the rest of us unwashed masses get to take the AEV bus. Problem with both of those is we don't have the electric generation capacity or distribution grid to support them.
    keenerkeen07 likes this.
  5. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    I see the "end timers" have arrived.
  6. ctromley

    ctromley Been here awhile

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    You are incorrect. My electric car is charged 100% at home. The additional electricity I use is so small it's lost in the monthly variations on my bills.

    Much hand-wringing has been done over how changing all our gas burners to electric power will overwhelm the grid and break it. Even the power companies were worried about that, until recently (last year?) they dramatically revised all their forecasts because they found they were wildly over-estimating projected electricity demand vs. capacity. Turns out we are seeing an unexpected increase in renewables, and consumption keeps going down due to more efficient devices and other continuing efforts to use less. Now all their projections are for flat or declining output, even including a substantial increase in EV use.

    This isn't some arm-waving, true-believer, greenie-weenie EV idealist saying these things, it's the electric utilities - and one would hope they would know. They've been lobbying congress hard to extend EV tax rebates, and have created their own rebates for installing charging equipment:

    https://advrider.com/f/threads/elec...t-to-320-373-mpg.1288237/page-2#post-34568677
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  7. _CJ

    _CJ Retrogrouch

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    Interesting talk about why "renuables" are never going to be viable. This is from a guy who worked in the field for years.





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  8. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    My goodness this guy is rambling all over the place. Surprised they let him speak on TEDx. Many of his overly-broad claims are simply untrue except in the very narrow cases he cites as evidence: e.g. that one must "clear everything away" to install solar farms.

    To wit: the very latest "best practice" with solar farms is to combine them with agriculture, thereby doubling the utility of the resource (a.k.a. "dual use" farming). A side benefit is that the elevated solar panels decrease desiccation of the ground with the result that many types of vegetation thrive under this partially shaded solar panel scenario (e.g. certain vegetables and all grasses love it under there). Clearly not for grains though. Farming land in this manner is estimated to be as high as 286% more productive.

    See: https://www.pri.org/stories/2018-06-08/energy-and-food-together-under-solar-panels-crops-thrive
    and https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/24/combining-solar-panels-agriculture-makes-land-productive/
    and https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/solar-farms-produce-power-and-food/
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  9. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    Deniers gotta deny, there's no denying that.
  10. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    No, there is a distinct pattern that separates deniers from the rest of us.
    But hey, live for your rapture or whatever.

    M
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  11. wheresbaoskee

    wheresbaoskee Been here awhile

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    Hey, any chance that you two could keep your CSM out of this thread? Please and Thank You.

    Some of us are actually interested in the discussion.
  12. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    What's CSM?
  13. wheresbaoskee

    wheresbaoskee Been here awhile

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    Church, State, Money.

    3 topics that tend to ruin threads. ADV has a spot in the Basement for such "spirited debate."

    I stay out of such sections for reasons not really important to the wide world.

    Again, please and thank you.

    :beer
  14. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    Whew! I thought it might mean Cock Sucker Mouth.
    Thanks for the clarification.

    M
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  15. wheresbaoskee

    wheresbaoskee Been here awhile

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    Lol. I'd never abbreviate an insult; was simply using the board's own nomenclature.
  16. PeterW

    PeterW Long timer

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    BUT, the number of electric cars is still a very small % of the total. And the early adopters tend to be people who have the option of charging at home.

    That just isn't going to be true in general, and it's going to deviate more from that as the % of electric goes up and problems are going to hit hard then. A number of countries are mandating 100% electric by say 2030 - that's going to be fun to watch, preferably from a distance.

    And for myself, I'm in the demographic that could use an electric car or bike and would love too. But I can count, I'd never repay the current cost difference with fuel savings. I could buy a small petrol car new here for ~$20,000 (AU), the least expensive electric here is ~$50,000. (If you use google it says the cheapest is $30k, a lie, that's the petrol version of the same car).
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  17. Eatmore Mudd

    Eatmore Mudd Mischief on wheels.

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    Futurists have been proclaiming utopia is right around the corner for as long as futurists have existed. The rest of us have been waiting for generations to see what the fuss is about. Hate to be a johnny buzz kill but the reality is no matter how hard people wish for it utopia is a fantasy that is not human nature.
    _CJ and keenerkeen07 like this.
  18. ctromley

    ctromley Been here awhile

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    Well, regarding the grid, you're armchair quarterbacking when I gave you links to the TVA (utility) analysis through 2035 and the US Energy Information administration with projections through 2050. And those were only two among many sources I found at the time, all saying the same thing. You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but I'm at a loss as to why you'd stick with that when there have been 1000s of man-hours and millions of dollars devoted to researching the topic, by people who really need to know what we can expect going forward.

    It's not just the US either. A year or so ago there was a similar knee-jerk warning from a UK parliamentarian, who was giving voice to the ill-informed concerns of many. Government studies shot down those concerns too.

    Not only are utilities not worried about breaking the grid, even in the future, they want more EVs on the road in large part to keep their revenues from falling. If it was me and I really wanted to continue believing that the grid was doomed, I'd feel compelled to review some of those studies so I could point out where they got it wrong. Failing that, I'd have to give up my belief. But that's just me.

    Regarding the economics, yeah the payback can take awhile. Even more with EMs because ICE motorcycles have relatively good gas mileage. But money isn't the sole deciding factor. For me, EMs are just more satisfying in their own right. And if an EM will work for you, buying one instead of an ICE can be seen as doing your part to get all of humanity to a better place. Or not, depending on how you look at such things.
  19. _CJ

    _CJ Retrogrouch

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    There will always be a never ending stream of crack-pot ideas that people come up with to chip away at the edges of the problem. Personally, I'll take the opinion of a scientist who was employed full time for over a decade as part of a team tasked with figuring out a way to make it work vs. that of armchair environmentalists in the internet. This guy isn't a "denier", he isn't funded by oil/gas/coal, he wanted it to work, but it's just not possible, so better to focus our efforts on something that will actually work, and will actually be good for the environment.

    Meanwhile, I'm sitting in my armchair looking at ways to simplify and go back to ways that have worked in the past. Wood stove, chicken coop, a couple if pigs, a small garden, etc. The new model of "clean energy" may work for some, but I feel it's probably going to be too expensive for me. Better to just spend/use less. The first R in the three R's is reduce, but nobody seems to talk about that anymore.




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  20. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    Oh many are indeed talking/doing something about it. But you are 100% correct. Americans will need to reduce their energy footprint by 50% to more closely align with other citizens around the world. Building up our public transportation infrastructure will be a key part of this. But so is reducing consumption as well as mandatory recycling (e.g. no more free rides for manufacturers to sweep externalities under the rug so that someone else has to pick up the bill).
    ctromley likes this.