The tipping point is right around the corner.

Discussion in 'Electric Motorcycles' started by MJSfoto1956, Dec 26, 2018.

  1. _CJ

    _CJ Retrogrouch

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    Reading comprehension bro....




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  2. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    Because “Feedumb!!!”
  3. _CJ

    _CJ Retrogrouch

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    Freedom is dumb to these people.

    wow.



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  4. DaBinChe

    DaBinChe Long timer

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    three things
    1) battery tech isn't there yet...maybe super capacitors or graphene (graphene has been talked about for over a decade but hasn't gone anywhere)
    2) solar voltaic tech isn't there either. It is barely double digit efficiency and requires too much surface area for any serious power generation. Solar thermal is much much more efficiency but is like any power generation station with their infrastructure.
    3) AI is mainly software and that will take a while. Probably needs infrastructure too, to aid like a grid to follow...how we drive within the line/lanes. It is easy for AI to follow when things are perfect but for it drive when there ain't no lines to follow like in a newly re/paved road, construction, weather, etc. Don't count out the human factor. Elon made that mistake with the Tesla factory thinking robots will do everything and it just made a mess. Human task no matter how simple they seem are very complicated for robots. And this wasn't even AI it was just preprogram robots doing preprogram things on a fix coures/track/path.
  5. hamiamham

    hamiamham Been here awhile

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    Take Zero Motorcycles for an example. Does anyone know the rate at which they are expanding the range on their motorcycles. We can argue all day if this is a tipping point or if it is never going to happen but the numbers don't lie. I know the range gains year over year are not linear but if they were able to increase range by 20% per year on average they would double their initial range in just under 4 years.
  6. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    Back to the original hypothesis: the tipping point is where the costs to purchase and maintain an EV are the same or less than an equivalent ICE vehicle. We are very close right now with automobiles. In two years, it will likely be cheaper across-the-board to own and operate an EV. At which time modern capitalism will kick in and people will vote with their dollars regardless of the naysayers. Within ten years the entire industry is going to be upended. This you can count on. (or make investments now to profit from the inevitable change)

    As for eMotorcycles, they will lag as compared to all other forms of transportation, motorcycles are a niche. eScooters are another matter...
  7. T.S.Zarathustra

    T.S.Zarathustra Been here awhile

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    Things will change. In many countries the government has large income from taxes on fuel, there are plans in many of these of finding ways to tax electric vehicles. That would skew the "across-the-board" costs of electric vehicles.

    In 2009 the Zero S was available with 9.8 kWh battery pack. This was supposed to give 74 miles.
    In 2018 Zero introduced the ZF14.4 battery pack. With that the SRF has official combined range of 123 miles at 55mph.
    Let's call that 50% in 10 years. (There are other numbers, Wikipedia contradicts itself quite often on the Zero range specs, but the range is far from doubling in 4 years).
  8. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    Conveniently forgetting how much subsidy the entire ICE manufacturing chain receives from the same government. Might be a good time to finally let the market decide? LOL!
  9. hamiamham

    hamiamham Been here awhile

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    Tax is a good point. I also read insurance on Telsa's is much higher - part of the reason why Elon is going to have an insurance company I am sure - so that increases the cost of ownership as well.

    Earlier in the thread a poster ho works in the automotive industry I think said they will have phased out gas engines by 2028 or thereabouts...
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  10. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    BTW, Europe already has a huge, mature, efficient, and well-established EV infrastructure that they have been investing over the past 50+ years: their robust train system. Honestly, the need for non-train EVs in the EU is much less than the rest of the world. This explains why they put their bets on diesel for so long. The rest of the world is a bit more desperate for a viable solution to the ICE conundrum. And it appears that Volkswagen finally wants to be their supplier.
  11. MJSfoto1956

    MJSfoto1956 Been here awhile

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    Looking in a mirror perhaps? :p

    M
  12. ctromley

    ctromley Been here awhile

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    Teslas are costly to insure because they make luxury cars, mostly with aluminum body panels. Mercedes, Jags and Porsches are pretty precious to insure too. If you want to compare the insurance costs of normal cars to normal EVs, look into the costs for a Nissan Leaf or Chevy Bolt (in the US).
  13. Cataract2

    Cataract2 Where to?

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    Being fair. The Bolt has a lot of aluminum on it's body as well. Gotta keep it light. (Own a Bolt myself.)
  14. hamiamham

    hamiamham Been here awhile

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    Yes makes perfect sense.
  15. hamiamham

    hamiamham Been here awhile

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    what ice car is a good comp to the bolt?
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  16. E-luke

    E-luke Been here awhile

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    Nobody has ever said or claimed Zero increases 20% per year?! I own a Zero, work in an EV auto industry, and have talked with the zero engineers multiple times...

    7-11% per year is increase in Lithium battery energy density. This doesn’t mean that Zero are purchasing those new cells every model year?! Zero uses Farasis cells and they’re reliable and great for this application. They stuck with a certain Farasis cell type for a fair few years. Right now we’re at about 30% of the potential energy density of the current chemistry — we could eventually get 3 x the range per kw/h of battery at some point down the road.

    It’s ridiculous to look at Zero as a yardstick of this development. Manufacturing economics don’t allow for the latest tech to reach production EVERY year. It doesn’t happen in ICE - why would that happen in EV?
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  17. E-luke

    E-luke Been here awhile

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    Hyundai Kona. Beats it everywhere.
  18. E-luke

    E-luke Been here awhile

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    Lots of companies ending production or development of ICE motors. Volkswagen (biggest on earth) will end ICE motor development in 7 years.
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1O32O6
  19. hamiamham

    hamiamham Been here awhile

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    sorry for the confusion. i was not saying the range increases were 20% per year. I was using it as an example of the rule of 72. anyways at 10% per year range doubles in 7.2 years...
  20. ctromley

    ctromley Been here awhile

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    Actually Honda is biggest, making over 14 million ICEs per year. They will be an interesting company to watch for the next several years because there is mounting pressure to move away from fossil fuels, and Honda's ingrained corporate identity is that of an engine manufacturer. Being the world's largest manufacturer of motorcycles, #2 in cars and a major player in other markets only serves the core purpose of selling ICEs.

    ICE is what they do. What do they do when ICE falls out of favor?

    They are certainly capable of doing whatever is needed. IMHO, no one has better engineers than Honda. Back in the 90s when GM was getting huge amounts of press for the EV1, Honda was producing what I consider a better engineering achievement in the EV+. But that was only so they could sell ICEVs in California. They did all the same stuff that GM did that got them so much bad press and a starring role in the pivotal Who Killed the Electric Car. But since GM was the media darling, GM got the press and Honda went unnoticed. And since then, Honda has run some ads that were openly hostile to EVs (which is why I don't buy their products anymore, something that will change as soon as they start genuinely supporting EVs).

    Honda prides themselves in being, first and foremost, heart and soul, an engine company. That must change. No way around it if they expect to keep up with progress. It's somewhat similar to HD needing to change their corporate identity to survive, though Honda's is technological while HD's is cultural. Hmmmm - Actually, thinking about that some more, Honda's identity is so tightly wrapped around the ICE, their change will be both technological and cultural.

    The next decade is going to be Very Interesting. People who don't like change on principle are going to be Very Uncomfortable. THAT will be our primary problem, because change will only accelerate, and our vehicles are going to be pretty small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.
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