US-CAN border opening speculation.

Discussion in 'Americas' started by Motodoc, May 26, 2020.

  1. Motodoc

    Motodoc Adventurer

    Joined:
    May 11, 2014
    Oddometer:
    99
    Location:
    Columbus, OH
    US-CAN border is currently to remain closed until June 21st, as all of us hoping to travel this summer are probably well aware. I suspect the border will open without another month of closure. I wanted to display data looking at indicators for opening to occur.

    Death rates are down sharply. In the US, peak daily death rate per capita was 15 per million on April 16th. Today the death rate is 1/10th that, at 1.5 per million--actually in line with Canada which has 1/8 the population density. However, many are alarmed by case numbers increasing in some areas. To wit, testing per capita has doubled in the US in the last month, accounting for those increases (and further decreasing the case fatality rate). This is why I feel death, despite the delay from exposure, is a more reliable indicator of disease activity than positive test numbers.

    This mirrors what I am seeing in practice, with fewer sick COVID-19 patients and more patients coming in for testing. In March, due to limited SARS-COV-2 test availability, we had strict criteria for those who could be tested. Now, any symptomatic patient can be tested, and we are seeing results in <24 hours.

    ECCCBDD6-4B2D-4EBA-9E54-6FF53E8F7F0F.jpeg

    Also interesting is how the activity (cases here), mirrors 2003 SARS nearly to the day. Wikipedia.

    0D7987F8-9BB9-4F4D-B773-75E45E5E512A.png
    #1
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  2. bikerfish

    bikerfish flyfishandride

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2010
    Oddometer:
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    Location:
    western pa
    get back inside, and put on your mask!!!!
    seriously. Hopefully the numbers continue to go down, and things start to return to as near normal as they can. I think a couple things contrubute to the decrease in cases, for one, the precautions we are taking, that some say are too much, seem to help, and who can say they dont? could be much much worse. another is that summer is here, sunshine, people outside, open door and windows, exposure to more fresh air. Seems all the illnesses, flus and such, take a break once the weather warms up.
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