You guys think Harley Davidson will last?

Discussion in 'The Perfect Line and Other Riding Myths' started by tessalino, Aug 24, 2019.

  1. klaviator

    klaviator Long timer Supporter

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    That's what I see as well. Your bias comes through loud and clear. You are basing everything on your personal opinions and observations. None of us really know how Harley will do in the future but I can say that my observations are different than yours. Just for the record I have never owned and don't expect to own a Harley. While there is no doubt that there are a lot of Harley haters out there, there are also a lot of fans. I know a number of Harley owners who are not aging baby boomers. I see a lot of activity at the local Harley dealer and see a lot of Harleys on the road. My experience with Harley owners is much different than yours.

    It is no secret that Harley, as well as many other companies face many challenges in the future. Harley executives know that the aging demographic of their customer base is a major challenge. Will they be able to meet the challenge? Maybe, maybe not. Your personal prejudices will not affect the outcome.
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  2. BetterLateThanNever

    BetterLateThanNever Inactive User

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    That's grossly unfair, but maybe you haven't managed to plow through this thread. That would be understandable. Let me summarize:

    I don't have or like Harley Davidsons, and do not own their stock. My interest in this is solely professional, so to speak... I'm a marketing nerd, sit on a corporate board and an audit committee, and am an investor personally. I thought the question was interesting.

    My take on Harley's declining US sales was that they were in a dying segment with a new competitor, and that it was remarkable their declines actually merely paced the industry rather than being worse. I supported this with numbers.

    My take on their strategic situation was that they needed to diversify both their product line and their markets to survive. It is a matter of record that they are doing exactly these things, and a matter of opinion only as to whether they will succeed fast enough and with good enough products.

    My take on their financial viability was based on an examination of their balance sheet, basically. Yes, their stock has suffered, but it is a matter of record that their stock yield is pretty decent by today's standards, and I supported this with numbers. Their revenue actually rose slightly last year, again a matter of public record, and cash from operations rose 20%, and earnings per share by 5.6% (all FY17v18 numbers) and they are in a pretty solid cash position. In fact, they bought back 4.9 million shares worth of common stock last year, a telling move, also a matter of public record.

    Therefore, a reasonable person who knew what the hell they were talking about would conclude that Harley's prospects are good, with the sole significant risk factors being whether their brand is elastic enough, whether they can actually deliver on their product strategy, and whether it will all happen fast enough. These latter points are legitimately debatable. My opinion is that they will accomplish all three, and is worth what you're paying for it.

    But if you're going to haul out the tired old TPL trope that anyone who disagrees is either lying or biased, spare me. I - like a fool - tried to engage rationally on the original question, and I already regret it enough without your help. If you can see bias in the foregoing, then perhaps that bias is yours.
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  3. klaviator

    klaviator Long timer Supporter

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    You misunderstood my post. I was agreeing with you and Amphib. My post was directed at casey jones.
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  4. BetterLateThanNever

    BetterLateThanNever Inactive User

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    Ah, sorry, that wasn't clear to me. Subtract the snark from my post, but keep the facts.
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  5. klaviator

    klaviator Long timer Supporter

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    I guess I should have been more clear in my post. I can see how you misunderstood it.

    Your opinion on Harley's prospects is reasonable, not clouded by personal opinion like some.
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  6. oldgrizz

    oldgrizz Long timer Supporter

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    Have you ever really looked at the average BMW GSA rider and how they are dressed.
    Most of the ones I have seen are done up like they are doing a RTW trip when they are just going to the corner store.
    Different manufactures have different followers.
    Watched a guy on a Ducati dressed in full track gear that rode exactly 8 blocks. From his house to where he works.
    He looked the part though.
    Bottom line..if it makes you happy it's no one else's buisness.
    So I guess I should get a Harley and a parrot.
    Arrrr Billy Arrrrrr.
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  7. Traxx

    Traxx Been here awhile

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    Speaking of how some folks dress, sometimes it is hard to afford a separate touring suit, track day suit, go to the store suit and a commuting suit. Or maybe those suits take up a lot of room in the closet.
    In textile I look like a fat power ranger, in leather I look like a fat Darth Vader, in kevlar jeans and what ever jacket I am approaching pirate without the patches.
  8. liberpolly

    liberpolly Nu, shoyn, nudnick!

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    You think if he crashes between these 8 blocks, his road rash wouldn't be as serious as if it was 80 blocks?

    Point being, again, Adv and track gear is functional, pirate gear is just for signaling owner's stupidity to other like-minded, pleasantly stupid people.
  9. Traxx

    Traxx Been here awhile

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    What exactly is Pirate gear?
    I am thinking a leather vest or jacket with patches and such, leather chaps, leather boots, and a half helmet and a eye patch.
    I can see the leather jacket and chaps providing some protection. The vest will protect the torso, kinda.
    If the "pirate" can ditch the eye patch, wear a FF helmet, some kevlar butt jeans and chaps with the leather jacket they are approaching full ATGATT coverage.
  10. liberpolly

    liberpolly Nu, shoyn, nudnick!

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    But in reality, they wear brain bucket joke helmets, vests, and regular jeans, which do not provide even 1/10th protection of even most basic ATGATT getup. Which is fine, their life - their choice, but looks utterly idiotic, especially combined with brand t-shirts, leather bracelets, several pounds of cheap rings, bandanas, and signature Harley scowl on a pudgy face of an accountant. And sculls, sculls everywhere (hence the pirate).
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  11. Traxx

    Traxx Been here awhile

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    I sometimes wear a Triumph T-shirt and jeans when I am on the Triumph. My Lovely Bride says that I always look gumpy. Does that make me a Triumphant Pirate? :(:hide
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  12. liberpolly

    liberpolly Nu, shoyn, nudnick!

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    Depends on how many sculls you have on your bandana and rings.
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  13. Traxx

    Traxx Been here awhile

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    I don't have any bandanas or rings or skulls, I don't wear any jewelry at all. My Triumph t-shirt and jeans are black though, does that count?
  14. neanderthal

    neanderthal globeriding wannabe

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    How should they dress? Genuinely asking. I ride an ADV bike. The pirate stuff, no thanks. There's minimal if any protection there. The repli racer stuff? I'm a middle aged fatso who doesn't relish the thought of squeezing myself into a race suit when I can be comfortable in adv gear which is
    A comfortable
    B doesn't require gymnastics and extreme flexibility to don.

    I don't ride a BMW but it is an ADV bike. So, what should I wear? What should ADV bikers wear? I believe in ATGATT/ MTGMTT, so I generally wear a helmet, jacket, gloves, regular jeans, work boots. If i'm touring i'll wear MC pants (ADV style) as well. Only 1 of my 3 jackets isn't an ADV jacket. It's just a "street style" mesh jacket. I wear that most of the year when it's hot. One ADV jacket is poorly ventilated (My winter/ wet weather jacket) and my other one is my rest of the time jacket. It's better ventilated than my winter jacket but not as well as my mesh jacket.

    Cruiser riders all mostly seem to favor the pirate style though, so i'm not sure about that. That's a very broad generalisation of course.

    To be fair, the metric cruiser riders are know wear either a leather vest or a textile jacket depending on the weather. Or no jacket. But they do wear the minimalist helmets a lot.

    I can't disagree with that.
    But don't wear pirate gear and try to talk to me about being protected. It's better than nothing, but your leather vest isn't going to do much for your elbows if you crash, and most likely doesn't have a back insert for your spine. So you've only covered areas that most likely would have been covered by your normal dress anyway? How is that better protected?
    Yes, i'll concede that leather, and moto specific gear in general is going to be better than the publics mufti. But textile is infinitely much better in almost all areas than leather.

    Anyway, you do you, and i'll do me.
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  15. neanderthal

    neanderthal globeriding wannabe

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    I don't think it's necessary to own separate (style) ones. One or two good versatile jackets, one or two good versatile pants. Add helmet gloves, boots, you're good. I wear work boots for the most part.
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  16. liberpolly

    liberpolly Nu, shoyn, nudnick!

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    An acquaintance of mine got his ankle crashed to bits and was out of work for a year after a drop at 5 mph from a gas station, he was wearing work boots. Don't.
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  17. Traxx

    Traxx Been here awhile

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    I have 3 jackets that I rotate through depending on the weather and on how far I am going. Most of the time a klim apex air (mesh), followed by a Triumph Assen (street and WP), then a Triumph Navigator (Touring and WP). I will most likely sell the Triumph Navigator set up soon though. It is more of a ADV touring kit than I ride.
    I have been actually looking for a Harley 3 season water proof jacket, I thought that I did find one but turns out it had Skulls on the shoulders LOL. They have a textile one that I would like to see in person.
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  18. neanderthal

    neanderthal globeriding wannabe

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    I'd love not to but they're a sorta requirement for work. I don't have to wear them in my department but I'm cover for a department that does. And my locker is too small to keep steel toed work boots in.

    It's an unfortunate compromise.
  19. Khantahr

    Khantahr Adventurer

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    You could wear motorcycle boots to work and then change your shoes.
  20. BetterLateThanNever

    BetterLateThanNever Inactive User

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    Somebody just needs to bring up countersteering and we’ll have the trifecta.